Will Gaza Ceasefire Happen Before Trump's Inauguration? "Possible Agreement This Week"

Discussion on a Phased Ceasefire Plan: 33 Hostages to Be Released in the First Phase
Disagreements Over the Philadelphi Corridor and Buffer Zone... Internal Opposition Persists

As the war in Gaza enters its 15th month, a ceasefire is becoming visible. It is expected that negotiations could be finalized as early as this week with the first phase involving the release of 33 hostages.

On the 13th (local time), CNN reported, citing sources, that there is a high possibility that a Gaza war ceasefire agreement will be announced within the last few days of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term. The Associated Press (AP) reported that four officials said progress had been made in the negotiations.

Overview of Gaza Strip. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor, said at a briefing that day, "We are close to reaching an agreement. It could be finalized this week," adding, "Only time will tell, but we will do everything we can to cross the finish line." The White House also announced that President Biden discussed Gaza ceasefire and hostage release negotiations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that day.

Gideon Sa'ar, Israel’s Foreign Minister, also said, "There has been progress in the negotiations," and "Israel is cooperating with the U.S. to finalize a hostage deal, and soon we will know if the other side wants the same." Basem Naim, a member of Hamas’s Political Bureau, told The Washington Post (WP), "Significant progress has been made," and "Mediators have presented a draft of the final agreement."

According to AP, Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy for then President-elect Donald Trump, is pressuring Israel, while Qatar is pressuring Hamas to accept the agreement. An Egyptian official told AP that it is likely to take a few more days to finalize the negotiations, with both sides aiming to reach an agreement before Trump’s inauguration on the 20th.

CNN reported that both sides are discussing a phased ceasefire plan that would first involve the release of 33 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and a 42-day temporary ceasefire. From the 16th day of the ceasefire, a second phase of negotiations for a permanent end to the war will take place. On the 14th, close-range talks mediated by Qatar are expected to coordinate the detailed terms of the ceasefire.

However, several challenges remain before the negotiations can be completed. According to Hamas, discussions are ongoing regarding Israel’s withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor (a strategic area on the Egypt-Gaza border) and a permanent ceasefire. Last September, negotiations collapsed at the final stage over the Philadelphi Corridor issue. There are also disagreements over the width of the buffer zone within Gaza proposed by Israel. Hamas wants a buffer zone of 300 to 500 meters, the same as before the war, while Israel demands 2 kilometers.

Internal opposition in Israel is also a problem. Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right Finance Minister, said that the ceasefire negotiations would be a national security disaster. Ten hardline Israeli lawmakers sent a letter to Prime Minister Netanyahu opposing any agreement that would not allow Israeli troops to be stationed in strategic locations in Gaza.

A U.S. official said, "It is true that we are closer to an agreement than ever before, but there is still a possibility it could fall apart."

President Biden has aimed to make the Gaza ceasefire negotiations his final achievement in office. The upcoming inauguration of President-elect Trump is also expected to accelerate the ceasefire talks. A source told CNN, "Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to stay close to President-elect Trump," adding, "Even if the negotiations are not completed by the 20th, a framework must be established by that date."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.