Accounting Policy Research Institute Announces 2024 Second Half Business Survey Index as Seen by Certified Public Accountants

Second Half of This Year BSI at 66, Sharp Decline from 94 in First Half
Reflecting Global Economic Uncertainty and Delayed Recovery Due to US-China Tensions

The Accounting Policy Research Institute announced on the 27th the 'Certified Public Accountant's Business Survey Index (CPA BSI)' for the second half of 2024.

The survey was conducted from November 11 to 18 targeting certified public accountants with expertise and experience in the overall economy and industry (full-time accountants at the partner level or above in accounting firms and inactive accountants at the executive level in corporations).

The survey results showed that the BSI for the economic status in the second half of this year was 66, and the BSI outlook for the first half of next year was 68. The BSI is based on 100, where a value above 100 indicates economic improvement, and below 100 indicates economic deterioration.

The current status BSI significantly declined compared to the first half of this year (94). This appears to reflect global economic uncertainties due to US-China conflicts, delayed economic recovery, and delayed domestic demand recovery caused by sluggish domestic goods consumption and construction industry downturn.

At the beginning of next year, with the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, extensive policy changes are expected, including intensified US-China trade conflicts, the realization of universal tariffs, and the possible repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Accordingly, the outlook BSI for the first half of next year (68) was forecasted negatively, considering the characteristics of our economy, which has a high proportion of exports, following the second half of this year (66).

The major detailed factors expected to affect the Korean economy over the next year were ▲global economic trends (31%), ▲geopolitical conflicts (Russia-Ukraine war, China-Taiwan conflicts, etc.) (14%), ▲monetary policy direction and changes in funding environment (easing of tightening, credit crunch, etc.) (11%), and ▲household and corporate debt levels (9%).

The industry-specific current status BSI showed shipbuilding (150), finance (104), automobile (98), and pharmaceutical & bio (96), with most industries except shipbuilding and finance falling below the baseline (100), indicating sluggishness.

In the industry-specific outlook BSI, shipbuilding (148), pharmaceutical & bio (101), finance (95), and automobile (94) were surveyed. Except for shipbuilding and pharmaceutical & bio, most industries were below the baseline (100), indicating a negative outlook.

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