[Click eStock] "In Uncomfortable Exchange Rates, the Choice Is... OPM Over Sales"

Yuanta Securities on the 27th projected the upper limit of the KRW-USD exchange rate to be in the 1490 won range by early next year, based on the average increase rate from the financial crisis low point. Kang Daeseok, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, stated, "It is necessary to pay attention to the possibility that market interest may shift from sales volume to margins."

At the end of this year's stock market, an unstable market environment was created due to the sharp rise in the exchange rate. However, when comparing the currency values of Korea, China, and Japan, it is difficult to say that the Korean won is particularly severe.

The depreciation of the won affects earnings and supply-demand. It is expected that it will take until the second quarter of next year for the export growth rate to turn around.

It was also analyzed that the top sectors in terms of monthly net foreign buying intensity in December are very similar to the top sectors with upward revisions in monthly leading OPM for the same month, which is in the same context.

After earnings, the factor most sensitive to the exchange rate is supply-demand, especially foreign supply-demand. Foreign investors have recorded a net sale of about 2.7 trillion won in the KOSPI index as of the 26th. Although this marks five consecutive months of net selling, the scale of net sales has gradually decreased since September.

Despite the uncomfortable exchange rate situation and the resulting uncertainty about won-denominated assets, net foreign buying inflows were observed in 11 out of 126 sectors. When looking at net buying intensity relative to market capitalization, the order starts with software sectors including internet and gaming, followed by utilities and media.

A notable point is that most of the top sectors with high net buying intensity by foreign investors are sectors where expectations for margins have been positively maintained or revised upward, even amid domestic uncertainties in December. Eight out of the top ten sectors overlap.

Researcher Kang said, "Rather than pessimism due to the absolute level of the KRW-USD exchange rate, which has reached its highest point in 16 years, it is necessary to focus on the shift in market interest, including foreign investors."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.