China's November Export Value Falls Short of Market Expectations... SCMP Attributes to "Trump-Related Base Effect"

President Xi Jinping Confident in Achieving This Year's Economic Growth Target

China, aiming for a 5% economic growth rate this year, posted disappointing export results last month that fell short of market expectations.

The General Administration of Customs of China announced on the 10th that China's November export value was $312.31 billion (approximately 445.8 trillion KRW), a 6.7% increase compared to the same month last year. This figure fell short of expert forecasts compiled by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Bloomberg (8.4% and 8.7%, respectively) and showed a significant slowdown compared to the 12.7% export growth rate in October.

WSJ explained that the forecast of an 8.7% increase in China's exports last month was based on the analysis that the enormous tariff threats from the second Trump administration would cause a surge in shipments of Chinese goods.

Regarding this, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) analyzed that a base effect occurred due to overseas companies anticipating 'Trump's victory' in the U.S. presidential election and advancing their orders for Chinese goods. Because then-President-elect Donald Trump had announced during his candidacy that he would impose tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese products, overseas companies, concerned about uncertainty, purchased large quantities of Chinese goods in October, which led to a statistical illusion making November's Chinese exports appear contracted.

China's November imports were recorded at $214.87 billion (approximately 306.6 trillion KRW), a 3.9% decrease compared to the same month last year. Imports also fell short of WSJ and Bloomberg's forecasts (0.8% and 0.9%, respectively). As a result, China's total trade volume in November was $527.18 billion (approximately 752.3 trillion KRW), a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year.

When viewed in yuan terms, November exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 4.7%. The total trade volume in yuan terms for November rose by 1.2% compared to last year.

Meanwhile, according to Chinese state media, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed confidence on the morning of the same day at the 1+10 dialogue held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing that China would achieve its economic growth target this year and continue to serve as the world's largest economic growth engine.

President Xi also stated, "There are no winners in tariff wars, trade wars, or technology wars," expressing China's desire to continuously cooperate with the United States, the world's largest economic power.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.