In Japan's General Election, LDP Likely to Fail Single-Party Majority for the First Time in 12 Years

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is facing not only difficulty in securing an outright majority in the upcoming general election on the 27th, but also uncertainty about whether the ruling coalition as a whole will achieve a majority, according to recent public opinion polls. The approval rating of the newly formed Ishiba Shigeru Cabinet this month remained in the low 30% range.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Asahi Shimbun on the 21st, a recent nationwide poll of approximately 360,000 voters estimated that the LDP's seats in the House of Representatives (lower house) will decrease by about 50 from the current 247 seats, falling short of an outright majority (233 seats or more).

This general election will select 465 members, combining 289 constituency seats and 176 proportional representation seats. If the LDP fails to secure an outright majority, it will mark the first failure since the 2012 House of Representatives election when the party regained power.

The coalition partner Komeito's seats are also expected to drop from the current 32 to below 30. This means that even the LDP-Komeito alliance faces uncertainty in achieving a majority.

Prime Minister Ishiba, who took office on the 1st, took a gamble by dissolving the House of Representatives and calling an early general election on the 27th to gain momentum for his new cabinet's policy initiatives. However, amid the ongoing fallout from the LDP's 'slush fund scandal' and persistent high inflation, public support has not been forthcoming.

On the other hand, opposition parties are expected to increase their number of seats in this election. The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, is projected to increase its seats from the current 98 to around 140. The Democratic Party for the People is expected to expand its seats from 7 to around 20. The Communist Party is also forecasted to secure more seats than its current 10. Meanwhile, Nippon Ishin no Kai is anticipated to decrease from 44 seats to below 40.

In this survey, 33% of respondents said they 'support' the Ishiba Cabinet, which is 6 percentage points lower than the 39% who said they 'do not support' it. This approval rating is also lower compared to the 42% approval for the Kishida Fumio Cabinet at the time of the previous House of Representatives election in 2021. Regarding the Ishiba Cabinet's economic policies, 53% responded that they 'cannot expect much,' while only 24% said they 'can expect' positive outcomes.

In a public opinion poll released the previous day by Kyodo News, the Ishiba Cabinet's approval rating dropped 9.3 percentage points to 41.4% compared to an early-month survey (50.7%).

Local media, including Kyodo News, assessed that Prime Minister Ishiba is showing a sense of crisis over the poor support for the LDP and Komeito. On the same day, Ishiba gave a street speech in Nara City, acknowledging that criticism remains strong regarding the LDP's slush fund scandal, and said, "In the remaining six days until the election, I want to once again deeply reflect and sincerely ask the nation for support."

Constitutional Democratic Party leader Noda Yoshihiko appealed for support during a street speech in Asahikawa City, Hokkaido, saying, "Please entrust us with the government," and promising, "We will implement political reforms to ensure that such unfortunate incidents never happen again."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.