ASML 'Earnings Shock' Impact... Samsung Faces 26 Consecutive Days of Foreign Net Selling (Comprehensive)

ASML Falls Short of Next Year's Sales Forecast
US Pressure Blocking Exports to China Likely Major Factor
"Continuing Service to China" Pledged but Drops in 6 Months
Companies with High China Exposure Likely to Adjust Status
Foundries Using EUV Equipment Also Affected
Samsung and SK Stock Prices Fall Together

Dutch semiconductor equipment company ASML is confirmed to face a 'performance shock' this year due to U.S. sanctions against China, creating a turbulent atmosphere in the global semiconductor market, including Korean companies.

According to the global securities market and industry on the 16th, ASML estimated its sales for next year to be between 30 billion and 35 billion euros (approximately 44 trillion to 52 trillion KRW). This is significantly below the market expectation of 36.1 billion euros (about 53 trillion KRW). The booked sales for the third quarter this year were also 2.6 billion euros (about 3.8655 trillion KRW), which is far below the market forecast of 5.6 billion euros (about 8.3245 trillion KRW) compiled by market research firm LSEG. Due to the unexpectedly poor performance outlook, ASML's stock price fell 16.26% on the day.

On the same day, ASML experienced an incident where its third-quarter results were published on its official website before the earnings announcement, but the incident did not attract much attention because the results were much weaker than expected. The shock felt by the industry appears to be considerable. Semiconductor-related stocks also fell in price together, reflecting how significant the concerns spreading through the semiconductor market due to ASML's poor performance are. Nvidia fell 4.69%, TSMC 2.64%, Broadcom 3.47%, and AMD also dropped 5.22%.

Experts analyze that ASML's poor performance outlook is largely due to U.S. influence aiming to control ASML equipment exports to China through the Dutch government. The U.S. is imposing sanctions on its domestic market and pressuring global companies to reduce China's influence in the semiconductor supply chain and prevent China from developing semiconductors. Regarding ASML, the U.S. demands that the company not sell equipment or provide maintenance services. China is reported to be a key customer, accounting for 49% of ASML's semiconductor equipment sales, using more ASML equipment than South Korea, which accounts for 19%. In relation to this, during the Q1 earnings conference call in April, ASML CEO Peter Wennink stated, "There is no reason not to provide maintenance services for sold equipment," indicating a refusal to comply with U.S. pressure. However, contrary to that, the performance plunged six months later, unsettling ASML's surrounding environment. ASML CFO Roger Dassen also acknowledged the unfavorable situation, saying, "(In the future) the proportion of sales to China will sharply drop to the 20% range."

With ASML's poor performance potentially changing the global semiconductor market trend, attention is focused on how this will affect Korean companies. If ASML tightens its belt and enters emergency management, companies that have been supplied equipment from ASML may inevitably suffer adverse effects. Semiconductor companies with significant export shares to China are likely to take ASML as a cautionary example, reviewing their product situations and actively working to reduce their China-related shares. The U.S. is expected to increase pressure on Chinese semiconductors around the November presidential election, clearly increasing the geopolitical risks impacting the semiconductor market.

ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment is also drawing attention. This equipment uses extreme ultraviolet light to etch circuits onto wafers, and ASML is the only company in the world capable of manufacturing it. Since this equipment is essential for foundry processes below 7 nanometers (nm), it is analyzed that it will affect foundry market competitors such as TSMC (Taiwan) and Samsung Electronics in some way.

Meanwhile, Korean companies' stock prices also fell on the day. Samsung Electronics closed at 59,500 KRW, down 2.46%, as foreign investors continued net selling. It returned to below 60,000 KRW three days after briefly surpassing that mark. Foreign investors have sold Samsung Electronics shares worth 11.13 trillion KRW for 26 consecutive days from the 3rd of last month to the day, breaking the record for the longest net selling period by one day, surpassing the 25 days recorded in March-April 2022. SK Hynix also closed down 2.18% at 188,700 KRW.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.