When Gas Prices Drop... US Democrats Smile, Republicans Cry

Russia-Ukraine War Pushes Gas Prices from $5 to $3 per Gallon Again
"10% Increase in Oil Prices Leads to 0.6% Drop in Approval Ratings"

As the presidential election approaches this November, gasoline prices have fallen across the United States, leading to relief for the Democratic Party and frustration for the Republican Party, according to analysis.

On the 27th (local time), according to a survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA), recent U.S. drivers paid an average of $3.35 (about 4,455 won) per gallon (approximately 3.79 liters) of gasoline.

This price is about $1 higher than right after President Joe Biden took office. It is much higher than the average price of $2.48 during former President Donald Trump's term. However, it is cheaper compared to over $5 per gallon when Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago.

Although more expensive compared to right after Biden's inauguration or during Trump's presidency, foreign media noted that gasoline prices have been steadily declining this year. The current price is the lowest since March this year and is expected to continue falling until Election Day on November 5.

Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and former energy advisor to President George W. Bush, said, "Fuel prices are always very political because transportation costs, which we rely on in modern life, are seen everywhere," adding, "Although prices soared to record highs in mid-2022 and were much higher than during Trump's term, they have recently fallen to the mid-$3 per gallon range, partially mitigating the political risk for the Democrats ahead of the November election."

Major foreign media evaluated that U.S. drivers alone account for 10% of global oil demand, and the amount they pay per gallon of fuel has a huge impact on voting. In fact, one of the main reasons for former President Jimmy Carter's failed re-election was the oil crisis. A 2016 study conducted by Stanford University found that a 10% increase in gas station prices leads to a 0.6% drop in presidential approval ratings.

Gasoline prices are also a major issue in this election. As prices rose during Biden's term, the Republican Party pursued an inflation-focused attack strategy in their campaign. However, with recent inflation slowing down, this strategy has lost some momentum. In a recent Michigan Ross survey, only 51% of respondents said gasoline price pressure was their biggest concern, down from 56% in the same survey three months earlier.

Tom Kloza, global energy analysis chief at OPIS, said, "Gasoline prices were relatively cheap in Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, and it looks like Q4 2024 will be even cheaper," adding, "It would be surprising if the median price does not drop below $3 per gallon."

Prashant Malaviya, a professor at Georgetown University, said, "Consumers do not perceive price drops as quickly as price increases," but added, "However, if prices fall to the $2 range, it will have significant psychological meaning, and people will perceive it as a 'low price.'"

International oil prices surged more than 3% the previous day due to concerns over Libya's oil production halt, but as analyses suggested the fears were excessive, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $75.53 per barrel, down $1.89 (2.4%) from the previous trading day, and Brent crude, the global oil price benchmark, closed at $79.55 per barrel, down $1.88 (2.3%).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.