University of Wisconsin Professor: "Trump's Presidential Victory? ... Not Sure It Would Completely Flip the Election Outcome"

"George Floyd Photo... Voting Enthusiasm Does Not Rise"

As a photo taken immediately after the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump gains attention, some analysts suggest it could shake up the presidential race. However, Park Hong-min, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, expressed doubts about whether it can persuade the moderate voters.

On the 15th, Professor Park appeared on SBS Radio's 'Kim Tae-hyun's Political Show' and said, "During the George Floyd incident in 2020, many provocative photos were widely circulated, leading to many predictions that it would favor the Democratic Party. However, political scientists' research showed that the photos did not actually persuade the moderates, and the voting enthusiasm among moderates did not increase significantly."

On the 13th (local time), former President Trump, who was shot during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, USA, is seen descending from the stage while raising his fist above his head. This photo was taken by Evan Vucci, an AP photographer who won the Pulitzer Prize in 2021. [Image source=AP Yonhap News]

He added, "Since predictions from the beginning suggested that Trump had a slightly higher chance of winning, I am not sure if the effect will be strong enough to be described as 'completely overturning the situation.'"

Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, was shot during an outdoor rally in Pennsylvania on the afternoon of the 13th (local time). The bullet passed through the upper part of Trump's right ear. The assailant was Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old white male residing in Pennsylvania, who was reportedly listed as a Republican and died at the scene.

Although there has been much speculation because the suspect was a 'Republican,' Professor Park said, "There is no need to place much significance on that." He explained, "In Korea, one must pay party dues to become a party member, but in the U.S., there is no such requirement. You can become a member with just one click online, so it is very easy." He continued, "Also, he has donated political funds to Democratic-related organizations. Judging from his various activities, he appears to be someone who strongly dislikes politicians but is very interested in politics."

With this incident highlighting former President Trump's 'vitality,' there are forecasts that pressure for President Joe Biden, who has an image of being 'elderly and frail,' to resign may intensify. However, Professor Park sees the possibility of a candidate replacement as realistically low.

He said, "Before the assassination attempt, I estimated the possibility of (President Biden's) resignation at about 20-30%, but demands for resignation will gradually intensify. If the convention effect after next week's (Republican) national convention is strong, the calls for resignation will be stronger; otherwise, it will be difficult for the resignation possibility to exceed 50%."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.