[The Viewpoint of Dongki Kim] The Rise of the Far-Right and Political Turmoil in Europe

Far-right Gains Seats in European Parliament Election
Immigration and Environmental Policies Expected to Suffer
After Far-right-led Coalition in the Netherlands,
Austria and France Could See Power Shift
EU Foundations May Be Shaken

Dongki Kim, Author of The Power of Geopolitics and The Power of the Dollar, Attorney

Although the far-right forces gained seats in the recent European Parliament elections, there appears to be little visible change. The center-right secured the largest number of seats and is likely to operate the parliament in cooperation with other pro-European Union (EU) factions. Ursula von der Leyen is expected to be reappointed as the President of the European Commission. However, there are significant changes beneath the surface.

The rise of far-right forces across various European countries is attributed to several factors over the past few years, including high inflation, financial tightening, economic recession, and immigration issues. In 2022, the number of immigrants newly entering the EU surged to approximately 7 million. Above all, the environmental policies, which have been a central agenda of the European Parliament for the past five years, are expected to face setbacks. Public opinion favoring the continuation of internal combustion engine vehicles and growing sympathy for farmers opposing various environmental regulations will increase. The far-right forces gained support by advocating for strict immigration controls and revisions to environmental policies that have increased the burden on citizens.

The German coalition government formed in 2021 suffered a significant defeat in this European Parliament election. The ruling parties?the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party?together garnered only 31% of the vote. In contrast, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), skeptical of the EU and hostile to environmental policies, received 15.9%, while the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance secured 30%. Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party caused a stir by winning 6.2%. Recently, support for the German coalition government has dropped to about 22%, a very low level. The main reason is the lack of leadership to address pressing national issues such as livelihood problems. In the German general election scheduled for next year, it is highly likely that a coalition government led by the opposition CDU/CSU alliance will be formed.

Meanwhile, in France, the ruling party of President Emmanuel Macron received only 14.6% of the vote in the European Parliament election, suffering a crushing defeat to the far-right National Rally (RN), which won 31.4%. Immediately after the election results were announced, President Macron made a sudden decision to dissolve the National Assembly (lower house) and hold a general election. Although Macron was re-elected in 2022, his ruling party failed to secure a majority in the subsequent National Assembly election, causing difficulties in governing. Although the opposition parties failed to unite, avoiding a vote of no confidence in the cabinet, moderate opposition parties were increasingly dissatisfied with the government, making a no-confidence vote likely in the fall.

From Macron’s perspective, it was probably better to proactively hold a general election. He is likely to expect active voter turnout driven by concerns over the far-right’s rise in the European Parliament election. In the past, supporters of candidates defeated in the first round often did not vote for far-right candidates in the runoff, which worked to the ruling party’s advantage. The tight election schedule also leaves uncertainty about whether opposition parties can form an alliance. However, since the election will be held immediately after the European Parliament election, the ruling party is expected to struggle.

If the far-right party becomes the largest party, a far-right prime minister will emerge. In France, the president handles foreign affairs and defense, while the prime minister and ministers manage domestic affairs. The far-right National Rally advocates for stricter immigration controls, reducing France’s contribution to the EU budget, and preferential treatment for French businesses and farmers, which is likely to lead to clashes with President Macron. Governance will become difficult, and a fiscal crisis may particularly arise. France’s national debt has expanded to about 3 trillion euros, equivalent to 110.6% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

In addition to the Netherlands, where a far-right-led coalition government has been formed, and Austria, where the far-right party is likely to become the largest party in the autumn general election, the emergence of a far-right-led government in France could shake the foundations of the EU. The UK general election scheduled for early next month is expected to result in a landslide victory for the opposition Labour Party. Europe as a whole is now in turmoil.

Kim Dong-gi, author of 'The Power of Geopolitics' and 'The Power of the Dollar' · Attorney

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.