Martial Arts "Clear Recovery in Q2 Exports Centered on Semiconductors, Shipbuilding, and Automobiles"

Q2 Export Industry Business Outlook Index
Highest Expectation for 'Export Market Recovery' in 3 Years

It is forecasted that South Korea's export economy will return to a clear recovery trend from April to June, driven by semiconductors, ships, automobiles, and automobile parts.

A researcher is presenting an MPW test chip in the 12-inch semiconductor testbed cleanroom at Daejeon Nano Comprehensive Technology Institute. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

On the 21st, the Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute announced this based on the '2024 Q2 Export Business Survey Index (EBSI)'. The EBSI is calculated based on a survey conducted over two weeks before the start of each quarter targeting about 2,000 companies by the Trade Association. A value above the median of 100 indicates a positive trade outlook, while a value below 100 indicates a negative trade outlook.

The overall EBSI for April to June, corresponding to the second quarter, was 116.0, the highest in 12 quarters since Q2 2021 (120.8). This is a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter (Q1) which was below the baseline at 97.2.

By item, strong performance was notable in eight categories including semiconductors (148.2), ships (127.6), and automobiles and automobile parts (124.5). Regarding this, the Trade Association stated, "The strong recovery of key export items such as semiconductors and ships is expected to lead the overall export improvement trend."

In particular, semiconductors recorded their highest level in 27 quarters since Q3 2017 (148.8). Since the EBSI index for semiconductors has been compiled since 2009, it has only exceeded 140.0 twice: in Q4 2009 (140.0) and Q3 2017 (148.8).

With the growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is increasing, and the oversupply of memory is easing, leading to rising export prices. As a result, the semiconductor export market is expected to maintain a positive trend.

Regarding ships, the export economy is expected to improve as Korea's shipbuilding industry continues to secure high value-added orders for eco-friendly ships such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol carriers, aligned with the global decarbonization trend. Exports of automobiles and automobile parts are also expected to be positive due to the recovery of export destination economies and improved export prices.

On the other hand, steel and non-ferrous metal products (90.7), textiles and clothing products (91.4), and machinery (96.0) are expected to show a slight decline, with the export economy in the second quarter not improving significantly. Rising raw material prices (19.5%) are expected to remain the biggest challenge for export companies for the fourth consecutive quarter. The proportion of companies feeling difficulties due to rising logistics costs caused by prolonged disruptions in the Red Sea situation and Panama Canal transit increased by 5.4 percentage points compared to the previous quarter.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.