[Defense Brief] What Matters More Than the North Wind During Election Season

This year, elections will be held in more than 50 countries. It is a ‘super election year.’ Movements from North Korea are also expected. Since the democratization system in 1987, North Korea has interfered in all elections in South Korea. It did not discriminate between presidential, general, or local elections. Due to the special circumstances of a divided nation, the repercussions were significant. The so-called ‘Bukpung (北風, North Wind)’ caused turmoil in the election scenes. Depending on the incidents, conservative and progressive camps sometimes enjoyed windfall benefits, while at other times they suffered backlash.

The ‘Korean Air KAL 858 bombing’ incident is a representative example. The 13th presidential election in 1987 saw a strong momentum for the democratic camp amid the wave of democratization. However, the situation was reversed. On the day before the election, Kim Hyun-hee was brought into the country, leading to the victory of Roh Tae-woo, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Justice Party. Although the failure of the unification between former Presidents Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung had an impact, the Bukpung issue was also significant. The same was true for the 14th presidential election in 1992. At that time, the Agency for National Security Planning announced the ‘South Korean Workers’ Party Central Region Party Incident’ involving 300 nationwide operatives. This espionage case contributed to the election of Kim Young-sam, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Liberal Party. The 15th general election in 1996 was the peak of Bukpung. One week before the general election, North Korean armed forces infiltrated the Joint Security Area (JSA) in Panmunjom and engaged in a firefight. The New Korea Party, which was expected to suffer a crushing defeat, won 139 seats and became the largest party in the National Assembly. They greatly benefited from Bukpung. During the 15th presidential election in 1997, the so-called ‘Chongpung (銃風, Gun Wind)’ incident, a notorious case, also occurred. It was a case in which the Hannara Party was indicted for allegedly requesting the North Korean authorities to conduct a show of force to boost the support rate of candidate Lee Hoi-chang. Although the substantive truth was revealed after the election, it was an incident that exposed the reality of Bukpung during election seasons.

Even as time passed, Bukpung remained. North Korea and the United States held their first summit in 2018. In the local elections in June of that year, it turned into a boon for the progressive camp. The Democratic Party won a landslide victory, controlling 14 out of 17 metropolitan governments nationwide. Bukpung also includes military provocations. At the end of 2012, right after the U.S. presidential election and just before the South Korean presidential election, North Korea launched long-range missiles, and shortly after President Park Geun-hye’s inauguration in 2013, it conducted a nuclear test. Additionally, in 2016, two months before the U.S. presidential election, North Korea conducted another nuclear test.

Bukpung is expected to continue this year as well. The National Intelligence Service also issued a warning. It forecasted that attacks aiming to divide public opinion through the spread of fake news or deepfake videos on social networking services (SNS) or hacking attacks targeting election systems would intensify. North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un proved this by taking action from the beginning of the new year. He did not hesitate to make threatening declarations aimed at inducing internal conflicts and division within South Korea. He said it was not mere bluff but that direct provocations would follow.

The public may be unsettled by Bukpung. Watching wars around the world, such as in Ukraine, it does not feel like someone else’s problem. What do experts say? Many believe that unless South Korea attacks first, the likelihood of North Korea initiating war is very low. North Korea chronically lacks essential supplies for war, such as food and fuel. It is also difficult for them to gain support from China or Russia. They have no justification. The North Korean leadership is not irrational and acts only for self-preservation. War contradicts these objectives.

Then what should our political circles do? They must not be played by Bukpung. They must not echo it either. They should pay more attention to Minpung (民風, the people’s sentiment) than Bukpung. That is the path for the people.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.