7 Days to US Republican First Primary: Key Points on 'Trump's Majority Vote'

Trump Supporters Rallying with Full Force

The Iowa caucus, the first presidential primary stage for the U.S. Republican Party, is just one week away. With former President Donald Trump expected to hold the lead, the biggest point of interest is whether he will secure a majority of the votes. A less-than-impressive result could inevitably affect his journey to the presidential nomination. The Trump camp is also making every effort to rally supporters to avoid a repeat of the surprising defeat they experienced in the 2016 Iowa caucus.

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According to an analysis of Republican primary polls by The Hill, a congressional news outlet, on the 8th (local time), former President Trump currently holds a 64.1% approval rating in nationwide polls. This figure surpasses his competitors, former Ambassador Nikki Haley (11.3%) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (11%), by more than 50 percentage points. In Iowa, the first primary state, Trump received 51.6% support.

Iowa, where the caucus will be held on the 15th, accounts for only 40 delegates out of the Republican Party’s total 2,429 (about 1.6%). However, as the first primary state, it plays a crucial role as a "presidential weather vane" that sets the tone for the early election race. Therefore, whether former President Trump can stably secure over 50% support in the Iowa caucus is considered a key point to watch. If he fails to win a majority in Iowa, a conservative state with a 90% white population, it could be interpreted that more than half of Republican voters prefer a candidate other than Trump. CNN stated, "If former President Trump wins overwhelmingly, he can begin an unstoppable march toward the presidential nomination. But a lackluster victory or an unexpected defeat will raise doubts about his electability and open the door to a long battle until the nomination is confirmed."

The Trump camp is also determined not to be complacent with poll leads and aims to block any possibility of a last-minute reversal on voting day. According to CNN, during a recent rally in Mason City, Iowa, Trump urged his supporters to vote by saying, "Forget the polls showing us 35 points ahead. Think of it as if we are losing by 1 point." Previously, in the 2016 election, despite leading in various polls, he suffered an unexpected defeat to Senator Ted Cruz in Iowa.

Moreover, maintaining a wide margin over the second-place candidate is important for fundraising. The possibility that former Ambassador Haley or Governor DeSantis, who have recently been noted as alternatives to Trump among moderate voters, could achieve surprising results in the Iowa caucus cannot be completely ruled out. Haley is aiming to overtake Trump in New Hampshire after performing well in Iowa. In New Hampshire, where the primary will be held eight days after Iowa, some polls show Haley threatening Trump’s lead.

The fate of candidates after the Iowa caucus is also a point of interest, as who drops out could influence the New Hampshire primary and others. If Chris Christie, the anti-Trump former governor of New Jersey, withdraws, his supporters are expected to shift more toward Haley than Trump. On the other hand, recent local media reports suggest that if Governor DeSantis, who has been mentioned as a possible dropout after Iowa, exits, his votes are likely to go to Trump. However, CNN reported that DeSantis has told voters he will not quit even if he does not finish first in Iowa.

Weather is also considered a variable. According to forecasts, temperatures in Iowa on election day, the 15th, are expected to drop to as low as minus 24 degrees Celsius. Election results are expected to start coming in around 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time on the 15th, with most precincts completing their counts within about an hour and a half.

Meanwhile, on the same day, President Joe Biden criticized former President Trump, who refuses to concede the presidential election, at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina, saying he is trying to "steal history" like those who misrepresented the causes of the Civil War. Biden said, "The MAGA (far-right Republican) party, led by a defeated president, tried to steal the election and is now trying to steal history," condemning political violence and white supremacy. The speech was delivered at a historic Black church where nine people were killed in a mass shooting by a white supremacist in 2015.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.