[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea May Conduct ICBM Provocation This Month

Kim Tae-hyo, First Deputy Director, "ICBM Launch Possible This Month"
Additional Launches Likely Based on Party Central Committee Results

North Korea is expected to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) sometime this month. South Korea, the United States, and Japan plan to activate a real-time missile warning information sharing system this month, which is seen as a response to this development.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Kim Tae-hyo, First Deputy Director of the National Security Office, stated on the 14th (local time) at Dulles Airport near Washington DC, "I believe there is a possibility of North Korea launching an ICBM in December," expressing concerns over additional provocations by North Korea within the year. Kim is scheduled to attend the 2nd Korea-US Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting in Washington on the 15th.

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission and General Secretary of the Workers' Party, held a Political Bureau meeting of the Party Central Committee on the 1st, deciding to convene the 9th plenary session of the 8th Party Central Committee in late this month. At this meeting, plans for additional reconnaissance satellites are expected to be finalized, and depending on the outcome, preparations for a full-scale ICBM launch are anticipated.

Following an ICBM launch, North Korea may conduct its 7th nuclear test. The first nuclear test was conducted on October 9, 2006, three months after the launch of the Taepodong-2 missile. The second nuclear test on May 25, 2009, was carried out one month after the launch of the Unha-2 long-range missile carrying the Kwangmyongsong-2 satellite. The third nuclear test took place on February 12, 2013, two months after the launch of the Unha-3 rocket carrying the Kwangmyongsong 3-2 satellite in December 2012. The most recent, the 6th nuclear test, was conducted on September 3, 2017, two months after the launch of the Hwasong-14 ICBM in July.

If North Korea proceeds with the 7th nuclear test, it is highly likely they will also conduct a nuclear test of the tactical nuclear weapon Hwasan-31, which was previously revealed. This is seen as an attempt to demonstrate the capability to equip long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. Earlier, in March, North Korea publicly showcased scenes of Kim Jong-un’s on-site guidance related to the 'weaponization of nuclear arms,' revealing numerous Hwasan-31 missiles and their launch vehicles.

The National Intelligence Service also reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee last month, stating, "Nuclear tests are matters decided by North Korea’s supreme leader," and added, "In 2024, depending on Kim Jong-un’s decision, there is a possibility of nuclear tests at any time."

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