One Month Before Taiwan Presidential Election... Ruling Party 37.8% vs Main Opposition Party 32.6%

"Many Supporters of the Main Opposition Party Are Over 40
Voter Turnout Up... Final Vote Margin Likely Narrow"

With the Taiwanese presidential election (general election) scheduled for January next year, the ruling party with an independence stance and the pro-China main opposition party candidate are still engaged in a close race, showing a narrow gap in support rates.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by the Taiwanese internet media 'Miliu Dojeonja Bo' from the 6th to the 8th among 1,201 adults aged 20 and over, and announced the day before, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates Lai Ching-te for president and Xiao Mei-qin for vice president recorded a support rate of 37.8%, while the Kuomintang (KMT) candidates Hou You-yi for president and Zhao Shao-kang for vice president recorded 32.6%, reported Taiwanese media such as Economic Daily on the 10th. The support rate gap was 5.2 percentage points.

The sample error of this survey was ±2.8 percentage points (p) at a 95% confidence level, so the lead slightly exceeded the margin of error.

The People's Party candidates Ke Wen-zhe for president and Wu Xin-ying for vice president had a support rate of 17.3%, significantly trailing behind the two main candidates.

Compared to the previous survey results, the support rate for Lai and Xiao candidates dropped by 2.7 percentage points, while the support rates for Hou and Zhao candidates and Ke and Wu candidates rose by 1.8 percentage points and 1.0 percentage points, respectively.

Presidential candidates Hou Youyi of the Kuomintang, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, and Ke Wenzhe of the Taiwan People's Party (from left) [Image source: Captured from Taiwan United Daily News, Yonhap News]

Taiwanese media interpreted these results as being due to controversy over illegal construction at Lai's hometown residence and interest in Hou's youth housing purchase policy.

Wu Zi-jia, chairman of Miliu Dojeonja Bo, recently explained on an internet broadcast program that although the opposition KMT candidate's support rate is lower than that of the DPP candidate, most KMT supporters are over 40 years old, who traditionally have a higher voter turnout.

He further explained that since voter turnout among those over 40 is usually in the 80% range, while turnout among those aged 20 to 40 is generally below 50%, the final vote difference in the actual election may not be that large.

He added, as a personal opinion, that this election will "probably be decided by around 500,000 votes."

Taiwanese media reported that the Central Election Commission is scheduled to draw lots for election symbols on the 11th.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.