[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] South Korea-US-Japan, Countdown to Establishing North Korea Missile Intelligence System

On the 13th, the ROK-US Security Consultative Meeting Held in Seoul
Full Discussions Expected if ROK-US-Japan Defense Ministers' Meeting Takes Place
US to Act as Bridge Instead of Direct Information Sharing Between ROK and Japan

Amid the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between South Korea and the United States held in Seoul on the 13th, it is anticipated that South Korea, the US, and Japan will complete the establishment of a system to share North Korean missile warning information in real time as early as this month. Depending on how the three countries share real-time North Korean missile information, it is expected to spark controversy as it could evolve beyond mere information transmission into the construction of a missile defense network (MD) to intercept missiles.

According to military authorities on the 10th, it is highly likely that a South Korea-US-Japan defense ministers' meeting will be held in conjunction with the SCM on the 13th. If the trilateral defense ministers' meeting takes place, discussions on sharing North Korean missile warning information in real time are expected to accelerate.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Earlier, the defense ministers of South Korea, the US, and Japan decided at the 20th Asia Security Conference (commonly known as the Shangri-La Dialogue) held in Singapore in June to activate a real-time sharing system for North Korean missile warning information within this year. After the talks, the three ministers announced in a joint press statement, "We have agreed to activate a real-time sharing mechanism for missile warning information within this year to enhance each country's detection capabilities regarding missiles launched by North Korea."

If South Korea, the US, and Japan establish a system to share missile warning information on North Korean missiles, it is expected that the command and control systems, including radars used respectively by the South Korean military, US Forces Korea, the Japan Self-Defense Forces, and US Forces Japan, will be connected through the US Indo-Pacific Command to enable real-time information sharing among the three countries. Since South Korea and Japan are not allied partners, their radar systems cannot be directly linked, so the information will be routed through their common ally, the United States.

The trilateral information exchange is based on the Trilateral Information Sharing Arrangement (TISA). When South Korea collects North Korean nuclear and missile information, it is transmitted to the US Department of Defense, which then forwards it to Japan's Ministry of Defense after obtaining approval from the South Korean government (Ministry of Defense). The US thus acts as an intermediary.

While the US and Japan plan to establish a real-time information sharing system using the TISA method, some interpret this as a way to avoid controversy over integrating the South Korean military into the missile defense (MD) system that the US is building with Japan. After the real-time information sharing system is established, the South Korea-US alliance's MD system could be integrated. When the US Forces Korea decided to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in 2016, there were also concerns about the integration of the South Korea-US MD system. Since this structure forms a massive MD network targeting North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missiles in the East Asia-Pacific region, Chinese opposition is also expected. China views the deployment of US MD systems in the Korean Peninsula and East Asia as a means to contain itself.

The Ministry of National Defense explains that the missile warning information being negotiated for sharing among South Korea, the US, and Japan is limited to information about missiles launched from North Korea. A military official said, "The system will be limited to sharing 'warning information' such as the launch point, flight direction, speed, and expected impact point of missiles in situations where a launch has occurred, rather than information before or after the launch."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.