"Jindo 9.1 Earthquake and Mt. Fuji Eruption" Warning from Japanese Research Institute

Occurs Every 100-150 Years
Most Recent Earthquake in 1946
"Cycle May Have Accelerated"

Amid recent strong earthquakes occurring around the world, a warning has drawn attention that the possibility of a 'Nankai Great Earthquake' occurring in Japan is gradually increasing.

The Nankai earthquake refers to an earthquake that occurs approximately every 100 to 150 years in the sea area stretching from the southern coast of Shikoku, Japan, to the Kaiso Strait. Its magnitude is known to be around 8.0.

On the 3rd, the Japanese economic magazine 'Gendai Business' cited the director of the Japan Disaster Prevention System Research Institute, reporting that a Nankai Great Earthquake surpassing the Great East Japan Earthquake could occur.

The Great East Japan Earthquake was a magnitude 9.0 earthquake that struck the Tohoku region in March 2011. It was the largest earthquake in Japan's recorded observation history, and a massive tsunami struck, causing significant damage to residential areas in the Tohoku region, Kanto region, and the Pacific coastal areas of Japan.

Residential area devastated by the tsunami during the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 [Image source=Yonhap News]

In this regard, Takehiko Yamamura, director of the Disaster Prevention System Research Institute, stated, "The magnitude of the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 was about 9.0, but the expected magnitude of the Nankai Great Earthquake is 9.1," adding, "There is a high possibility that an earthquake stronger than the Great East Japan Earthquake will occur."

The Nankai earthquake itself has been occurring continuously since the past. The most recent Nankai Great Earthquake occurred in 1946. Based on the cycle, it is estimated to occur in the 2040s.

However, recently, some Japanese earthquake experts are concerned that this Nankai Great Earthquake may occur sooner than in the past. They point out that the large earthquakes occurring in several regions worldwide, such as Nepal, Indonesia, and Afghanistan, may be a precursor.

According to data released by the Japanese government’s Earthquake Research Committee in January, the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of 8 to 9 occurring in the Nankai region within 10 years is 30%. The probability within 20 years is 60%, within 30 years rises to 70-80%, and the probability within 50 years approaches 90%.

If a Nankai Great Earthquake with a magnitude of 9.1 occurs, it is estimated that up to 320,000 people could die across Japan. The media also reported that the earthquake could stimulate Mount Fuji to erupt due to the great earthquake.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.