Rice Prices Also Rise... India Export Controls Cause African Fried Rice Price Surge

Nigeria Rice Prices Surge 46.3% in One Year
West Africa Hit Hard by India's Export Controls
Concerns Over Repetition of 2008 Global Food Crisis

In upscale restaurants in Lagos, a major city in West Africa's Nigeria, orders for the recently popular fried rice have sharply declined. The price of fried rice has surged to $5.20 USD, nearly three times higher than a year ago. Nigeria's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is about $6 USD per day. This means that ordering one serving of fried rice at a restaurant requires spending almost an entire day's income.

As India, the world's largest rice producer, imposes export controls on rice, global rice prices are soaring. Concerns about "agflation"?a phenomenon where agricultural product price hikes lead to overall inflation?are persisting due to poor harvests caused by frequent abnormal weather conditions.

According to major foreign media on the 23rd, the import price of rice, Nigeria's staple food, rose by 46.3% year-on-year in August this year on a per kilogram basis.

The main cause of the soaring rice import prices in Nigeria is India's export ban. The Indian government took export control measures after abnormal weather reduced agricultural production, including rice, and grain prices surged by 11.5% last year. With the general election scheduled for April next year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi implemented these measures to prevent voter backlash and curb inflation.

Earlier, in July, the Indian government banned exports of non-Basmati white rice, and a month later in August, it introduced a minimum export price for Basmati rice to prevent exports below a certain price. A 20% export tariff was also imposed on parboiled rice. Although the Indian government resumed exports of non-Basmati white rice to seven countries, including Nepal, Cameroon, and C?te d'Ivoire, on the 18th, it still restricts exports to many other countries.

Joseph Glauber, a senior researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), a food security think tank, pointed out, "It is extremely difficult for other countries when a country that accounts for 40% of global (rice) trade controls half of its exports and imposes tariffs on the other half."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As India blocks rice exports, rice prices from Thailand and Vietnam, the world's second and third largest rice producers, are also soaring. Rice prices in these countries have jumped 14% and 22%, respectively, since India's export ban.

In the market, concerns are growing that the recent rise in grain prices could trigger a repeat of the 2008 global food crisis, which severely impacted the poorest countries. Previously, when Vietnam restricted rice exports in June 2007, India followed suit in October of the same year, and Pakistan and Thailand imposed export controls in April 2008, causing rice prices to surge significantly. At that time, rice prices tripled within six months, greatly fueling inflation.

Countries in West Africa, which heavily depend on Indian rice imports, are expected to be particularly affected. Togo imported 88% of its rice from India last year, while Benin and Senegal imported 61% and 47%, respectively, during the same period. Arif Hossain, chief economist at the UN World Food Programme (WFP), stated, "Countries likely to suffer the worst damage are already struggling with numerous issues such as soaring food prices, skyrocketing debt, and currency depreciation," adding, "Millions of households are facing unaffordable prices for staple goods (rice)."

Accordingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have urged India to normalize its export control measures, citing sufficient rice stockpiles.

Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC Bank in the UK, said, "Dependence on rice trade is increasing, but protectionism is also intensifying," and predicted, "There is clearly a possibility of risks similar to those seen in 2008 recurring."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.