US Intelligence Agencies Say "Hezbollah Unlikely to Attack Israel"

As Israel's ground assault on the Palestinian Gaza Strip looms, concerns are growing that the Lebanese armed faction Hezbollah's involvement could escalate the conflict into a new Middle East war.

However, U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly view the likelihood of Hezbollah launching a large-scale attack against Israel as slim, according to a report by The Washington Post (WP) on the 12th (local time).

On the 9th (local time), smoke rose on the outskirts of the Lebanese border village Aita al-Shaab, which was shelled by the Israeli military. On the same day, Hezbollah, an armed group based in southern Lebanon, launched a mortar attack on the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms in the Golan Heights, and Israel immediately responded with counter-bombardment. [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

According to a top-secret report submitted by intelligence agencies to the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff in February, a stance of "mutual deterrence" has been established between Israel and Hezbollah following the maritime boundary agreement between Israel and Lebanon last October.

This agreement, which ended an 11-year territorial dispute, has enabled both Israel and Lebanon to begin full-scale exploration and development of the abundant natural gas and oil deposits in the disputed waters.

The report, obtained by WP from the chat platform Discord, analyzed that while Israel and Hezbollah maintain readiness to use military force, they remain "within their respective historical patterns of engagement," aiming to avoid casualties and respond proportionally to provocations.

Even during heightened tensions, both sides have attempted to "demonstrate strength while avoiding further escalation."

Israel conducts destructive acts within Lebanese territory and fires into empty areas, while Hezbollah shoots down Israeli drones or launches rockets into northern Israel.

These actions are provocative but designed to avoid actual casualties, allowing each side to show their capability to strike without escalating the conflict.

However, the report warns that if Hezbollah's limited attacks result in casualties among Israeli soldiers or civilians, such provocations could escalate into a broader conflict.

In fact, since the surprise attack by the Palestinian armed faction Hamas on Israel on the 7th, Hezbollah has been launching rocket attacks and shelling the northern Israeli border area daily.

While Hezbollah may not intend to provoke a war with Israel, the report suggests that the outcome may not be fully controllable.

Matthew Levitt, an expert at the U.S. think tank Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), expects Hezbollah to occasionally carry out small-scale actions along the border to assert their presence, expressing concern that "(Hezbollah) is exceptionally likely to make a miscalculation."

The report also added that factors such as Hezbollah's inability to restrain Hamas's activities within Lebanon could disrupt the balance between Israel and Hezbollah.

In fact, in April, 34 rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into Israel, which Israeli military authorities attributed to Hamas operatives.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.