[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea to Launch Satellite Next Month... Will It Receive Help from Russia?

Possibility of Technology Transfer for Satellites, Launch Vehicles, and Fairings
Launch Timing May Be Delayed Due to Tight Schedule Until Next Month

Russian President Vladimir Putin's declaration of support for North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite development has drawn attention to North Korea's announced third military reconnaissance satellite launch next month. Experts agree that it is practically difficult for North Korea to receive Russian technology by next month, but Russian technicians may conduct prior inspections or delay the launch timing.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Before the summit with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un held on the 13th at Russia's Vostochny Cosmodrome, President Putin responded to a question about whether Russia would assist North Korea's satellite development by saying, "That's why we came here (to the spaceport)." Since cooperation on satellite development has been openly declared at the highest leadership level, it is highly likely that North Korea and Russia will swiftly proceed with implementation.

The technology North Korea is interested in from Russia is military reconnaissance satellites. North Korea attempted a second military reconnaissance satellite launch in August but failed. This was the second failure following the attempt on May 31.

To make up for this, North Korea has announced a third reconnaissance satellite launch attempt scheduled for October. Among North Korea watchers and experts, there is speculation that North Korea might attempt the satellite launch again around October 10, the 78th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If North Korea receives satellite-related technology from Russia this time, it is expected to be launch vehicle technology, according to military insiders and experts.

For reconnaissance via satellite, the satellite must be positioned in low Earth orbit, which is technically challenging for North Korea. In particular, there have been doubts about North Korea's capability to receive data transmitted from the satellite. The quality of satellite images is a sensitive issue for North Korea. The North Korean satellite body, 'Manlilyeong 1,' was recovered by South Korean forces after the first launch failure in May, revealing poor performance. Joint investigations by South Korea and the United States concluded that it has no military utility as a reconnaissance satellite.

When some experts evaluated the photos of downtown Seoul and Incheon Port, which North Korea released last December claiming they were taken by a reconnaissance satellite prototype, as 'poor quality,' Kim Yo-jong, deputy director of the Workers' Party, issued a statement directly rebutting, saying, "Who would install an expensive high-resolution camera for a one-time test?"

North Korea May Acquire or Lease Russian Satellites Directly to Obtain Only Necessary Information

There is talk of Russia providing satellite bodies or cameras mounted on satellites. Lee Chun-geun, honorary research fellow at the Science Policy Institute, said, "Russia could consider directly selling or leasing satellites it owns," adding, "However, ground facilities would need to be supported to receive information when Russian satellites pass over the Korean Peninsula."

North Korea's consecutive failures in space launch vehicle launches fundamentally stem from incomplete intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) manufacturing technology. If North Korea receives launch vehicle technology assistance from Russia, it could utilize the 'Angara' rocket inspected at the Vostochny base. The Angara rocket shares the first stage and engine with Naro-1, South Korea's first space launch vehicle that succeeded in 2013. Since the Angara rocket was behind Naro-1's success, if this rocket goes to North Korea, it would mean that South and North Korea share Russian technology.

However, it is unlikely that North Korea will abandon its independently developed 'Chollima-1' launch vehicle used in the failed military reconnaissance satellite launches on May 31 and August 24. Applying a new system would realistically make the third launch scheduled for next month difficult to proceed.

Russian Technicians May Be Dispatched or Launch Timing Delayed for Third Launch Next Month

Therefore, there is a proposal that Russia assist in developing the 'Chollima-1.' North Korea is believed to have developed the Chollima-1 engine based on the liquid-fueled Paektusan engine used in existing ICBMs such as Hwasong-15. Since the Paektusan engine is known to have been modeled after the Russian RD-250 engine, there are various ways Russia could support North Korea's rocket engine development. It is also analyzed that Russia could provide advanced test facilities, such as combustion test stands equipped with 'high-altitude chambers' that simulate the operating environment of second and third stage engines, which North Korea lacks.

Lee Chun-geun, honorary research fellow at the Science Policy Institute, said, "North Korea developed the Chollima-1 engine based on the liquid-fueled Paektusan engine used in existing ICBMs like Hwasong-15, and it is unlikely to give it up easily," adding, "Russia could provide test facilities or conduct tests on North Korea's behalf."

Transfer of atmospheric reentry technology also appears necessary. Kim Yo-jong, deputy director of the North Korean Workers' Party, stated in December last year regarding ICBM atmospheric reentry technology, "You will soon see," indicating that North Korea would soon conduct a normal-angle ICBM launch. This was the first time Kim mentioned that North Korea has secured the atmospheric reentry technology, the final stage of ICBM technology, openly threatening South Korea and the United States. However, there remains skepticism about whether North Korea has actually secured the atmospheric reentry technology for the warhead necessary to complete the ICBM.

Jang Young-geun, center director at the Korea Institute for National Strategic Studies, said, "It is certain that North Korea will receive satellite-related technology from Russia, but if they change the launch system again, it will take a long time, so they will likely receive help only for necessary parts and launch the satellite again."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.