[News in War History] Prigozhin's Mysterious Crash Death... The Deep Connection Between War and 'Unexplained Deaths'

Medieval German Mercenary Captains Also Die Under Mysterious Circumstances
Stalin Officers' 'Great Purge'... Leading to Nazi Invasion
Shaken Putin Regime... Ukraine War as a Variable

In June, Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as "Putin's Chef," who led the mercenary company Wagner Group and instigated a military rebellion that ultimately failed, died in a private plane crash exactly two months after the uprising. His private plane, which had never experienced any mechanical issues before, suddenly crashed, and with his death alongside key aides, strong suspicions of a "mysterious death" have been raised.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed condolences to Prigozhin's family but also mentioned that he "made mistakes." Consequently, there is a flood of speculation that President Putin might be behind Prigozhin's mysterious death. Conspiracy theories are spreading that this was not a simple mechanical failure but that Prigozhin was eliminated by the Putin regime.

Especially since Prigozhin stood at the forefront of the Ukraine war, contrasting his mercenary forces with the incompetent government troops and even showing signs of entering politics, it is suggested that he had long been a target for removal by the Putin regime. Some analyses even compare this to the "Great Purge" Stalin carried out against the military in the 1930s.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

When external wars drag on, dictators often experience power leakage, and to preempt military rebellions, they typically carry out purges of military personnel?a classic political pattern. However, if capable officers get caught up in these purges, it often leads to catastrophic military defeats. There is growing interest in whether this will affect the course of the Ukraine war going forward.

This time, we will explore historical cases of mysterious deaths among military leaders during external wars and examine the repercussions that Prigozhin's death might bring.

◆News: Prigozhin Dies Two Months After Rebellion...Putin Says "He Also Made Mistakes"

A scene from 2011 showing Yevgeny Prigozhin personally serving dinner for Russian President Vladimir Putin (right).
[Image source=AP·Yonhap News]

According to TASS news agency on the 24th (local time), President Putin directly addressed Prigozhin's death. Putin said, "I have known him since the 1990s. He was a capable businessman but was born with a difficult fate and made mistakes," and expressed condolences to his family.

Earlier, Russian disaster management authorities announced that Prigozhin died in a private plane crash. According to Russian authorities, Prigozhin's private plane, en route from Moscow to Saint Petersburg, crashed near Kuzhenkino in Tver Oblast, killing all 10 passengers onboard, including Prigozhin. Dmitry Utkin, co-founder of Wagner Group and one of Prigozhin's closest aides, also died in the crash, Russian authorities reported.

Particularly notable is that August 23 marked exactly two months since Prigozhin's military rebellion. On June 23, he led the Wagner mercenary forces in an uprising, advancing to within 200 km of Moscow before withdrawing. Afterwards, he met with President Putin, relocated Wagner's base to Belarus, and announced plans to resume mercenary operations in Africa, leading to speculation that he had been pardoned by Putin. However, he died abruptly.

Suspicions surrounding his death persist. His private plane, which had never had an accident before, suddenly crashed within 30 seconds over Russian airspace and hit the ground, raising suspicions that the Russian military might have deliberately shot it down. Wagner Group also claimed that Prigozhin was shot down by Russian air defense systems, deepening doubts.

In the West, theories that Prigozhin was eliminated by Russian authorities under Putin's orders are gaining traction. According to Voice of America (VOA), U.S. President Joe Biden said at a press conference on the 23rd, "I don't know exactly what happened, but I am not surprised," and added, "There is almost nothing that happens in Russia without Putin being behind it," implying that Putin was behind Prigozhin's death.

Western intelligence agencies had speculated about the possibility of his assassination since his failed military rebellion in June. Since many opponents of the Putin regime were eliminated before and after the Ukraine war, it was widely expected that Prigozhin, who led a rebellion, would also be assassinated on Putin's orders.

Moreover, even before the rebellion, Prigozhin actively promoted his and Wagner Group's military achievements on social media, contrasting them with the incompetence of the Russian regular army and building a political base, which raised concerns within the Russian government about his moves.

◆History 1: Mysterious Deaths of Medieval German Mercenary Leaders...Removed for Dreaming of Rebellion

A print depicting General Georg von Frundsberg.

It was not uncommon in medieval times for mercenary leaders who rose as war heroes to be eliminated by the ruling regime during wars. No matter how loyal they were, from the ruler's perspective, a military hero rising in power could threaten their regime, inevitably causing friction.

The death of Georg von Frundsberg, founder of the German mercenary unit Landsknecht, active in 15th-16th century Europe, is often cited in European history. In 1527, under orders from Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor, he attacked the Roman Papal States. Although a devout Roman Catholic, he followed his emperor's orders to attack Rome, a Catholic stronghold.

Charles V did not provide proper funding to his mercenary troops, and other nobles and merchants were reluctant to invest in the attack on the Papal States. Ultimately, Frundsberg sold his lands, property, and even household utensils to finance the expedition, but ran out of funds during the advance on Rome. Enraged mercenaries lost control and sacked Rome, reducing it to ashes. This event is known in Western history as the "Sacco di Roma" (Sack of Rome).

Shocked by the unintended destruction of Rome, General Frundsberg reportedly suffered a stroke and was transported back to Germany, where he died shortly thereafter. Despite his loyalty to the Habsburg family, he was abandoned without recourse.

Portrait of Albrecht von Wallenstein

About a century later, in 1634, another German mercenary leader was sacrificed by power. Albrecht von Wallenstein, a renowned commander of the 30 Years' War in 17th-century Europe, was a minor noble in Bohemia who commanded an army of over 100,000 as a mercenary leader for the Holy Roman Emperor but was assassinated.

He was known for ruthlessly plundering occupied territories by receiving tax rights in exchange for funding his mercenary forces from the emperor. Using these funds, he maintained a large mercenary army and expanded his domain around Bohemia.

His end was tragic. As he increasingly clashed with the emperor, he prepared a rebellion but was discovered in advance, leading to a counterattack by the emperor. Mercenaries bribed by the emperor turned against him, and he was killed by a subordinate's spear while bedridden.

◆History 2: Stalin Purged 75% of Military Officers...Leading to Nazi Germany's Invasion

Stalin during the Great Purge of 1937.

Just before World War II, in Russia, Joseph Stalin, the Soviet leader, conducted massive purges targeting military officers, causing significant gaps in military strength. This was a major reason for the Soviet army's early defeats against Nazi Germany.

Between 1937 and 1938, Stalin carried out the Great Purge, during which over 1.5 million people were arrested and more than 700,000 executed. This political operation aimed to eliminate all opposition and establish a strong dictatorship. He deployed around 40,000 secret police to ruthlessly remove anyone who voiced even slight criticism against him.

Many key military personnel were included in these purges. Over 75% of Soviet military officers?more than 1,000?were executed. Many were killed for unknown reasons, and countless officers died under mysterious circumstances. Subsequently, the Soviet army lost all its frontline commanders and fell into chaos.

In 1941, Nazi Germany broke the non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union and launched a full-scale invasion on the Eastern Front, causing the Soviet army to collapse helplessly.

Ultimately, the Soviet Union managed to repel Nazi Germany and became one of the victorious powers, but the severe population loss of over 20 million adult males and the resulting gender imbalance remain cited as reasons for Russia's ongoing social and demographic stagnation.

◆Implication: Increasing Political Instability in Russia?Could It Become a Variable in the Ukraine War?

The funeral hall of Prigozhin set up in Moscow, the capital of Russia. [Image source=Reuters·Yonhap News]

The ripple effects of Prigozhin's sudden mysterious death remain uncertain. For now, the Wagner Group, having lost its central figure, is expected either to disband or come under direct command of President Putin, significantly weakening its combat power.

Following Prigozhin's rebellion, crackdowns on anti-Putin forces have intensified, with some generals losing command or being arrested, deepening a climate of fear. This could severely damage the morale of the Russian military. However, with next year's presidential election approaching, President Putin is expected to continue purging opposition forces to consolidate his regime.

Whether Ukraine can leverage Russia's political instability to turn the tide of the war, or what further political turmoil might arise in Russia, remains uncertain. This situation is likely to increase anxiety not only in Russia and Ukraine but also among Eastern European countries for some time to come.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.