[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Demonstrates Capability for Surprise Attack on US Mainland... Provocations Expected in Second Half of the Year

Significantly Extending Altitude and Flight Time Using Solid Fuel
Possibility of Targeting Political Schedule in Second Half Including Joint Exercises

North Korea officially announced that it conducted a test launch of the solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'Hwasong-18.' The launch of the Hwasong-18 is interpreted as a strategic move to shift the situation following the failure of the launch of the 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite No. 1.'

On the 13th, the Korean Central News Agency stated, "Under the local guidance of Chairman Kim Jong Un, the Hwasong-18 was launched the previous day," and claimed, "We will continue military offensives until the United States abandons its hostile policy aimed at us."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea "Launches Solid-Fuel Hwasong-18" ... Demonstrates Surprise Attack Capability on US Mainland

Our military also assessed that although the altitude (6000 km) of the Hwasong-18 launched by North Korea the previous day is similar to that of the Hwasong-17, considering the flight trajectory and other factors, it is highly likely to be the solid-fuel ICBM 'Hwasong-18.'

The solid-fuel ICBM can be moved stably using a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) vehicle and does not require fueling before launch, allowing for covert maneuvering and rapid firing. This can neutralize the South Korea-US 'Kill Chain' preemptive strike system that identifies launch trends in advance.

The Hwasong-18 flew at an altitude of 6000 km and a range of 1000 km in its second test following the first test in April. North Korea stated that it launched at a high angle rather than a normal angle while securing range at maximum output, emphasizing that the Hwasong-18 has the capability to strike the entire US mainland. The altitude during the April launch was less than 3000 km, but this time it doubled. The increased altitude means that the amount of solid fuel was increased to maximize output.

Notably, this provocation had the longest flight time among all missiles, about 74 minutes. The flight time of the Hwasong-15 launched in 2017 was only 53 minutes. Subsequently, the Hwasong-15 launched in February flew for 66 minutes and 55 seconds, and the Hwasong-17 launched in March flew for 69 minutes and 11 seconds.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea Forecasts Large-Scale Provocations in the Second Half of the Year

North Korea is expected to continue test launches in the second half of this year to announce the operational deployment of the Hwasong-18. High-angle launches require technical verification since the reentry technology of ICBMs must be tested by launching at a normal angle. The reentry vehicle (RV) of an ICBM carrying a nuclear warhead must withstand friction heat and shock reaching up to 20 times the speed of sound and 10,000 degrees Celsius upon atmospheric reentry.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "While the April launch confirmed normal flight operation, this time they attached a long-range receiving antenna to observe maximum performance," adding, "It is difficult to consider development complete after only two launches, so additional tests such as normal-angle launches with reduced range will be conducted."

Additional provocations could be timed around the first meeting of the South Korea-US Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) held in Seoul on the 18th and the 70th anniversary of the Korean War Victory Day on the 27th of this month. They may also target the upcoming South Korea-US joint exercise 'Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS)' scheduled for next month. This year, a large number of US strategic assets are expected to be deployed, making North Korea particularly sensitive.

John Wydner, Chief of Staff of the United States Forces Korea, announced at the '70th Anniversary of the South Korea-US Alliance Security Forum' held on the 10th that "the US strategic nuclear submarine (SSBN) is scheduled to be deployed to South Korea soon." In addition, major political events such as the regime establishment day (September 9) and the Workers' Party founding anniversary (October 10) are scheduled, suggesting provocations will continue throughout the second half of the year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.