Expecting the Return of Youke... Southeast Asians Frown as Chinese Stay 'Bangkok'

Major Southeast Asian Countries See Slow Recovery of Chinese Tourists
Below 50% of Pre-COVID-19 Levels
Reopening Effect Disappears, Southeast Asia Experiences Moderate Growth

Southeast Asian countries that had been expecting the "return of Chinese tourists (Youke·tourists)" are now wearing long faces. As the economic downturn has led Chinese people to cancel their overseas travel plans, it is analyzed that various Southeast Asian countries, which had anticipated a tourism boom, are now licking their wounds.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to Bloomberg News on the 10th, the number of Chinese tourists in major Southeast Asian countries this year is less than 50% of that in 2019, before COVID-19. Indonesia recorded 38.8% of the Chinese tourist inflow compared to 2019 as of mid-year. Thailand was at 35.9%, Vietnam at 34.3%, Singapore at 25.2%, and the Philippines only 13.8%.

Among Southeast Asian countries, Thailand, which is highly dependent on the tourism industry, is expected to have 5 million Chinese tourists this year, falling far short of the target of 7 million. Considering that tourism accounts for about 20% of Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) directly and indirectly, the economic impact is likely to fall significantly below initial expectations.

Mr. Qiu, an employee of the Chinese travel agency GZTC International Tourism Company, said, "Demand for travel to Singapore and Malaysia, the most popular destinations during the summer vacation season, is about 30% of the pre-COVID-19 level, and demand for travel to Thailand is about 10%." He added, "Demand for other Southeast Asian travel has also not recovered compared to the first half of this year."

Despite the lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns at the end of last year, China's economy has shown a recovery slower than expected, and concerns about stagnation have emerged, leading to a significant decrease in Chinese travel demand. Global investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for China's GDP growth rate this year from 6% to 5.4% last month.

The reduction in China's overseas flights has also had an impact. In the third quarter of this year, the number of flights from China to Southeast Asia was 49.8% of 2019 levels for Thailand, 48.8% for Vietnam, 42.6% for Indonesia, and 38.0% for the Philippines.

Southeast Asian countries, which are expected to see a decline in growth rates this year, now have to cope with the fallout from the decrease in tourism demand. Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted Indonesia's growth rate would slow from 5.3% last year to 5.0% this year, Vietnam's from 8.0% to 5.8%, and the Philippines' from 7.6% to 6.0%.

Bloomberg News pointed out, "The decline in Chinese tourist visits suggests that Southeast Asia's economic recovery this year will be weaker than expected," adding, "This is due to the global economic slowdown caused by monetary tightening combined with China's sluggish growth rate." It continued, "This signals that Southeast Asian countries, which have been focusing on attracting Chinese tourists this year to boost tourism revenue and economic growth, need to diversify their target markets and end their dependence on visitors from China, the world's second-largest economy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.