"Supply Chain Disruption in Asia During Taiwan Contingency... South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines Most Severely Affected"

Concerns Over Taiwan Strait Blockade and Trade Route Disruption

In the event of a war breaking out in Taiwan, it is analyzed that the Asia regional supply chain centered around the Taiwan Strait would be destroyed, putting South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines at the greatest risk of severe damage. If the war prolongs, the Taiwan Strait could be blockaded or trade routes could become unusable, forcing the use of detours, which is expected to spread damage throughout Asia, including Hong Kong, Southeast Asian countries, and Australia.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

On the 29th, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) cited a white paper published by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an economic analysis organization affiliated with the British magazine The Economist, warning that if a war breaks out in Taiwan, neighboring Asian countries could face serious risks due to supply chain disruptions.

The white paper assessed the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait involving clashes between Taiwanese and Chinese forces and the participation of U.S. troops, forecasting that Taiwan and neighboring countries such as South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines would suffer the greatest damage, while Australia, Hong Kong, and most Southeast Asian countries would also face serious vulnerabilities.

The white paper expressed concern, stating, "The destruction of regional information and communication technology (ICT) production and supply chains would cause disproportionate shocks to Northeast and Southeast Asia," and "military conflict would cause significant disruptions to maritime transport, passenger traffic, and air cargo."

According to the white paper, the Taiwan Strait is one of the busiest shipping routes in the world, and using detours would incur enormous costs. The paper added, "(In the event of military conflict) companies and logistics firms would choose to avoid the Taiwan Strait by taking longer routes, but this would be time-consuming and costly, with insurance premiums soaring," and "the impact on trade in goods and services, including the closure or diversion of maritime, air traffic, and logistics networks, would disproportionately affect economic activities across much of Asia."

Since Taiwan itself is home to the world's largest semiconductor foundries such as TSMC and serves as a maritime transport route through which various industrial parts and raw materials continue to flow into countries like South Korea and Japan, massive damage in wartime is inevitable.

Associate Professor Jee Pan from Tamkang University in Taiwan stated that Taiwan, which manufactures IT components, would be unable to receive supplies from overseas or export goods, adding, "This is a particular concern for South Korea and Japan."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.