[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] This Week's 'Critical Moment' for North Korea's Projectile Relaunch

Movement to Resume Firing Ahead of Plenary Meeting... Rainy Season Weather as a Variable

North Korea has declared that it will relaunch its failed military reconnaissance satellite No. 1, which was launched unsuccessfully on the 31st of last month, and there are observations that it could be launched this week. Considering political schedules and weather, it is possible that the launch will not be delayed beyond mid-month.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 30th of last month, North Korea notified the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that the deadline for the reconnaissance satellite launch was the 11th. However, the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 launched on the 31st of last month crashed, and North Korea changed its stance, stating that it will relaunch as soon as possible without additional notification to the IMO.

If North Korea relaunches the reconnaissance satellite, it may consider political schedules. North Korea is expected to hold the 8th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party this week. Since North Korea divides a month into the first and second halves, the meeting is expected to start before the 15th. The meeting is mainly expected to cover economic achievements in the first half of the year, but there is a possibility that military reconnaissance satellites related to strengthening defense capabilities will also be mentioned.

The detection of new activity around the West Sea Satellite Launching Station, where North Korea launched the reconnaissance satellite, also supports the possibility of a satellite relaunch this week. On the 10th (local time), 38 North, a U.S. North Korea specialist media outlet, reported that since the 5th, signs of preparing for a liquid-fuel engine test have been detected at the vertical engine test stand of the West Sea Satellite Launching Station. Previously, North Korea's National Aerospace Development Administration pointed out engine and fuel problems related to the failed launch on the 31st of last month, raising the possibility that this work is to supplement those issues.

The variable is the summer monsoon front. North Korea Central TV reported the day before that the early summer monsoon called 'Bori Jangma' has begun, and sporadic rain will continue for some time. Since satellite launches are greatly affected by weather changes, it is not easy to carry out a relaunch until weather conditions improve significantly for a considerable period. Especially vulnerable to the monsoon, North Korea may focus more on flood prevention than satellite launches to soothe public sentiment worsened by food shortages.

If launching a satellite is difficult, provocations such as submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launches are also possible. Based on satellite images of the Sinpo Shipyard in South Hamgyong Province, 38 North also reported that "the Sinpo-class (Whale-class) submarine, equipped with submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launch capability, was recently moved to a dry dock." 38 North analyzed that this movement might be related to submarine repairs or technical adjustments.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "After North Korea failed to launch the 'Unha-3' long-range rocket in 2012, it succeeded in relaunching it eight months later. Unlike then, the period required for relaunch could be shorter depending on the cause analysis."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.