[Good Morning Stock Market] US Semiconductor Index Strengthens... KOSPI Expected to Start Higher

On the 19th, the KOSPI is expected to start higher, supported by the strong performance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the U.S.

On the previous day at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 33,535.91, up 115.14 points (0.34%) from the previous session. The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index rose 39.28 points (0.94%) to 4,198.05, and the Nasdaq index closed at 12,688.84, up 188.27 points (1.51%) from the previous session.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The New York stock market showed some decline at one point amid concerns about the economy despite expectations of a U.S. government debt ceiling agreement. However, Nvidia rose about 5% following CEO Jensen Huang's new product announcement, and large technology stocks and semiconductor sectors related to artificial intelligence (AI) led the Nasdaq's strength.

On the previous day, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Korea Index Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) rose 0.77%, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF fell 0.54%. The KOSPI 200 futures increased by 0.33%. Accordingly, the KOSPI is expected to start about 0.3% higher on the day.

Seosangyoung, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, analyzed, "The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index in the U.S. showed a strong gain of 3.16%, continuously expanding its rise, which will have a favorable impact on the domestic stock market." He added, "In particular, foreign investors are actively buying related stocks."

However, he explained, "Considering that this topic has been continuously mentioned, changes in foreign investors' supply and demand for related stocks are expected today. Meanwhile, even moderate Federal Reserve members have mentioned the possibility of additional rate hikes at the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), so the hawkish Fed stance is a burden."

He continued, "Considering this, the domestic stock market is expected to start about 0.3% higher, but the scale of foreign investors' supply and demand in the semiconductor sector and the stock prices of related stocks will lead changes in the index."

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, forecasted, "Today, the market will start higher, supported by the possibility of a U.S. debt ceiling negotiation agreement and the strong performance of growth stocks led by AI such as Nvidia (4.97%) and AMD (4.03%)." He predicted, "Thanks to the semiconductor sector's strength, the KOSPI will surpass 2,500."

He added, "For the index, which has been moving sideways below the 200-day moving average since the end of April, to break through the upper limit, the semiconductor and bio sectors, which have a significant influence on the index, must show strength. Debt ceiling negotiations are expected to resume from the 21st, and with the U.S. Memorial Day holiday on the 29th, it is highly likely that an agreement will be reached next week." Furthermore, he stated, "The macro environment is positive, and with the decrease in KOSDAQ credit balance, which had exceeded 10 trillion won, and the adjustment of the secondary battery sector coming to an end, the supply and demand environment is not bad. After the earnings momentum ends, a favorable environment for growth stocks will continue."

Meanwhile, the one-month New York Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) for the won-dollar exchange rate stood at 1,333.24 won. Reflecting this, the won-dollar exchange rate is expected to start about 1 won lower.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.