US Expert on Next North Korean Successor: "Kim Yo-jong Likely as Transitional Leader"

"Kim Yo-jong to Become Leader if Kim Jong-un Dies Suddenly"
'Kim Ju-ae Succession' Should Be Viewed with Multiple Possibilities Open

There is an assessment that if North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un suddenly dies due to health issues or other reasons, his younger sister Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party, would be the most likely interim leader.

On the 14th (local time), Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Catherine Katz, Korea Chair at CSIS, released a report titled "Unanswered Questions About North Korean Leadership" on the CSIS website, summarizing discussions with North Korea experts and revealing this assessment.

"No member as capable as Kim Yo-jong as a leader"

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea. [Image source=Yonhap News Agency·Chosun Central TV screen]

In the report, Chair Cha and others identified Kim Jong-un's health as the biggest unknown variable related to North Korean leadership. They also pointed out that deterioration in Kim's health could lead to his death or incapacitation, which would directly affect political control and the succession structure.

The report stated, "Experts agreed that if Kim Jong-un dies or becomes unable to perform normal activities in the near future, his younger sister Kim Yo-jong would be the most likely interim leader."

It continued, "If power is transferred to Kim Yo-jong, it would be the first horizontal (within the same generation) power transfer case in North Korea and the emergence of the first female leader. Currently, there is no other family member in the North Korean dynastic system as capable and interested in leadership as Kim Yo-jong."

"Public appearances of Kim Ju-ae may be influenced by checks on Kim Yo-jong"

Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party of Korea.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, experts participating in the discussion also mentioned the frequent public appearances of Kim Jong-un's daughter, Kim Ju-ae. Regarding Kim Ju-ae's activities, experts offered several interpretations: ▲a signal to domestic and international audiences that the nuclear-armed status and the Kim family's power are solid and will continue to the next generation and ▲an intention to highlight Kim Jong-un's role as a father to humanize him.

There was also speculation that the power struggle between Kim Jong-un's wife Ri Sol-ju and Deputy Director Kim Yo-jong might be related to Kim Ju-ae's public appearances. Chair Cha and others predicted in the report, "The power struggle between Ri Sol-ju and Kim Yo-jong is extreme but still a plausible explanation. As Kim Yo-jong's political power grows, Ri Sol-ju likely sought to check Kim Yo-jong and make it clear that her own children are in the line of succession."

However, experts showed cautious responses regarding whether Kim Ju-ae is Kim Jong-un's successor. This is because Kim Ju-ae is very young, and titles such as "beloved child" do not necessarily indicate the most suitable candidate for the next leader.

Nonetheless, Chair Cha and others stated, "We must keep open various possibilities, including that Kim Ju-ae might actually be the successor or that Kim Ju-ae's younger brother could be the hidden true successor."

Kim Ju-ae has appeared eight times at official events

Mrs. Ri Sol-ju and daughter Kim Ju-ae. [Image source=Yonhap News Agency·Chosun Central TV screen]

Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un's daughter Kim Ju-ae has recently appeared repeatedly at official events. She first appeared on November 18 last year at the test launch site of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-17. To date, she has appeared eight times. North Korea has referred to Kim Ju-ae as "beloved child" and has alternated expressions such as "honorable" and "respected."

Some interpret Kim Ju-ae's repeated appearances as part of North Korean propaganda aimed at realizing the so-called "Baekdu bloodline" fourth-generation succession and strengthening legitimacy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.