China Could Change the Course of the Ukraine War... "For Now, Cautious"

Russia's Hope as Artillery Shell Stock Runs Out
China Cautious to Maintain Role as 'Mediator'

There is an analysis that China, despite having the power to change the course of the Ukraine war, is currently taking a cautious stance.

The British magazine The Economist reported on the 2nd (local time) in an article titled "China's weapons could revive Russia's failing war," stating that "if China supports Russia with weapons, the dynamics of the war could change."

According to The Economist, the stockpile of artillery shells is a decisive factor in the Ukraine war. Both Russia and Ukraine are striving to secure them, but Russia has few places to receive support from.

Among Russia's allies, Belarus has already provided all its artillery shells to Russia, North Korea has only supported a limited amount due to concerns about depletion, and Iran has no available quantity to offer.

In this situation, China, the world's fourth-largest arms exporter, is the only country Russia can expect help from. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, seven of the world's top 20 defense companies are Chinese. The Economist stated, "Although China's stockpile and quality of artillery shells are not well known, they would be sufficient to resolve Russia's crisis."

On the 22nd of last month, Vladimir Putin, President of Russia (right), is shaking hands with Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, during a visit to the Kremlin.
[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Moreover, The Economist assessed that China also has reasons to support Russia. Just weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and mentioned the countries' "limitless cooperative partnership."

Additionally, China has been importing military technology from Russia, and this opportunity could help balance the defense relationship between the two countries. The Economist quoted Professor Michael Lasker of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, saying, "China could send advanced components needed for drones and cruise missiles to Russia and, in return, receive related technologies such as the RD-180 space rocket engine, submarines, and fighter jets."

However, China has shown a stance that seems to support Russia, drawing criticism from Western countries, so it is analyzed that China is maintaining a cautious attitude. Supporting Russia would cause China to lose its position as a neutral mediator, worsen relations with the United States, and provoke opposition from Europe.

Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said, "Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated at a meeting on the 18th of last month that China would not send weapons to Russia." U.S. President Joe Biden also said, "It does not appear that China will actively send weapons to Russia."

However, The Economist predicted, "If Russia reaches a desperate situation on the battlefield in spring and summer, China will face strong pressure."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.