[Global Focus] China Counting Down to Overseas Expansion... Demand Explodes

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyunjung] Chinese people are preparing to travel around the world, breaking free from the 'Zero-COVID' shackles that have held them back for the past three years. While major countries are strengthening quarantine measures such as mandatory polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing and raising barriers between borders, it is expected that China will enter a full-scale 'reopening' phase if the number of COVID-19 cases in the country begins to decline. In particular, China has shown its determination to confront international criticism of 'data closure' by publicly disclosing the number of COVID-19 related deaths and severe cases.

The fear of COVID-19 within China has already significantly diminished. According to the Chinese portal site Baidu (百度) on the 16th, the number of searches related to COVID-19 symptoms such as cough or fever was 14,511,379 as of the previous day, a 13.63% decrease compared to the day before. This figure had exceeded 300 million until mid-last month, reflecting the fear of the epidemic, but has recently been easing day by day. Searches related to epidemic prevention or medical issues also decreased by 12.30% to 4,079,098 compared to the previous day.

Overseas Travel Bookings Up 540% Year-on-Year
Government Responds to International Criticism by Unusually Announcing Death Toll

Following the de facto abolition of the Zero-COVID policy announced by Chinese authorities, demand for overseas travel among Chinese citizens is showing a sharp rebound. According to the state-run Global Times, during the Chunjie (春節, Chinese New Year) period, overseas travel bookings by Chinese people through the travel specialist site Ctrip surged 540% compared to the previous year. The authorities have announced plans to restore international flights to 88% of pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of this month.

Population movement within China is already showing signs of recovery. From the 1st to the 8th of this month, the average subway usage in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Shenzhen has recovered to 70% compared to last year and 67% compared to 2019. Second-tier cities also show a similar trend with a 67% recovery compared to last year. During the special transportation period around Chunjie (January 1 to February 15), the total number of trips within China is expected to approach 2.1 billion.

China's high savings rate also supports the outlook for a rapid recovery in overseas travel demand. According to local media such as Guangming Daily, a sharp rise in savings rates has been observed in China since last year. As of the first half of last year, the savings rate of residents in China reached 36%, up 5 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and household deposits from January to August surged 2.3 times during the same period, reaching 10 trillion yuan (approximately 1,837 trillion won). In particular, the savings rate of the young generation aged 18 to 34, who have a strong consumption tendency, also surged from around 20% in 2020 to 25% this year. Local media reported, "Chinese people have significantly increased their savings by reducing consumption during the COVID-19 phase," and "the economy could rebound based on a rapid recovery in consumption after reopening (reopening)."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Welcoming Atmosphere for Chinese Tourists in Thailand and Others
Key Factor is COVID-19 Case Trends
Movement Expected to Surge After Peak and Stabilization

The timing of the surge in overseas travel by Chinese people is expected to be determined by the trend of COVID-19 cases, including the peak of infections. On the 9th, several local governments including Henan and Zhejiang provinces officially announced that COVID-19 had passed its 'peak' and entered a declining phase. Henan Province, with a population of 98.83 million, is the third most populous region in China and a large city with a relatively low urbanization rate (56%). If the COVID-19 peak has been smoothly passed in a city where urban and rural areas coexist, there is hope that the pandemic will end after Chunjie without a surge in deaths or collapse of the medical system.

The unusual announcement of COVID-19 related death numbers by the State Council on the 14th is also analyzed as an internal judgment that the worst situation has passed. On that day, the State Council revealed that from December 8 last year to February 12 this year, the cumulative number of COVID-19 related deaths in hospitals nationwide was 59,938. The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, which reached 1,625,000 on the 5th, has been declining and dropped to 1,270,000 on the 12th, and the number of severe hospitalized patients also decreased from about 128,000 to 105,000 during the same period.

Some countries, including Thailand, are enthusiastically welcoming Chinese tourists with messages of hospitality. Anutin Charnvirakul, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Health of Thailand, personally appeared at Bangkok airport on the 9th to welcome Chinese tourists. Previously, Thai authorities had introduced and then withdrawn measures to check COVID-19 vaccination status for foreign tourists, and officially stated that there would be no discrimination against Chinese tourists. Neighboring countries such as Indonesia, Cambodia, and Singapore have also clarified that they have no plans to strengthen quarantine measures specifically for Chinese tourists.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Southeast Asian travel media TTRW reported that Chinese overseas travel will soon resume, describing it as "the sleeping dragon is about to awaken." It added, "Considering that current international flight capacity is only 10% of 2019 levels and that flight ticket prices have soared due to supply-demand instability, the Chinese outbound market is expected to strongly recover around the second quarter of this year."

Meanwhile, China and South Korea are experiencing conflicts over COVID-19 quarantine and inspection issues. After South Korea announced on the 30th of last month measures including mandatory COVID-19 testing for arrivals from China, restrictions on issuing short-term visas, and limits on increasing flights, China responded on the 10th and 11th by suspending short-term visa issuance for Koreans and partially suspending visa exemptions. However, South Korea limited these restrictions until the 31st of this month and stated that it would decide on extension based on the COVID-19 situation in China, while China expressed its intention to decide its policy in connection with South Korea's decision. This suggests that if China's epidemic situation improves, travel between South Korea and China could recover in the short term.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.