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▲Gold bar (AP=Yonhap News)

As the year-end approaches, various financial institutions are releasing their economic forecasts for next year. Amid this, the Danish investment bank Saxo Bank has made a somewhat surprising prediction that gold prices will surge by more than 60% next year.

According to a report by US CNBC on the 26th, strategists affiliated with Saxo Bank predicted that gold prices will surpass $3,000 per ounce (approximately 3.9 million KRW) next year. This view represents the opinions of Saxo Bank strategists and is not an official stance of Saxo Bank.

Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said that the current spot price of gold at $1,800 per ounce could rise about 67% next year to exceed $3,000. He predicted that as globalization wanes and a 'wartime economy' mentality emphasizing self-sufficiency spreads, gold may become more attractive than holding foreign currencies from an individual country's perspective. He also added that increased investment in national security priorities and global liquidity growth are factors enhancing gold's appeal.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Saxo Bank, also stated, "In a commodity-driven economic environment with no better alternatives, it would not be surprising for gold demand to increase," adding, "Gold prices will rise further."

Saxo Bank also mentioned the possibility of the UK holding a referendum next year to revoke Brexit (the UK's withdrawal from the EU) and the emergence of countries pushing to ban meat production to limit carbon emissions.

Jessica Amir, a strategist at Saxo Bank, focused on the possibility of an early general election amid a recession caused by austerity policies in the UK, a sharp decline in support for the Conservative government, and growing public opinion to reconsider Brexit. In this election, the Labour Party could win, leading to a referendum to overturn Brexit that might pass.

Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Bank, cited research showing that 57% of pollutants emitted during food production come from meat, suggesting that at least one country actively pursuing carbon neutrality goals might ban meat production.

Scenarios include imposing heavy taxes on meat production starting in 2025 and completely banning meat production using domestically raised livestock by 2030. Denmark and Sweden are mentioned as countries where this is possible.

CNBC pointed out that while the bullish outlook on gold prices for next year is gaining traction, it does not reach the level predicted by Saxo Bank. Kirill Kirilenko, an analyst at commodity market research firm CRU Group, expects prices around $1,900 per ounce, heavily influenced by the policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, CNBC added that the forecasts are meaningful as investors assess scenarios regarding the global economic impact of various countries' policy decisions.

Furthermore, CNBC noted that since the likelihood of each scenario predicted by Saxo Bank is about 5 to 10%, the forecasts should be taken with caution. However, it also mentioned that Saxo Bank had previously anticipated scenarios such as Brexit in 2015, the Bitcoin surge in 2017, and the German recession in 2019.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.