Indoor Masks Will Be Removed Only After the Peak of the COVID Rebound... Lunar New Year Holiday Is the Biggest Test

Meets 1 of 4 Government Criteria
New Cases Must Decrease to Curb Spread
Gradual Decline of 70,000-80,000 Cases Expected in January
Discussion Possible Based on Spread Around Seol Holiday

On the 23rd, a notice regarding mask-wearing is posted at a bookstore in downtown Seoul. The government confirmed and announced the indoor mask-wearing mandate adjustment plan through the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters meeting on the same day. Photo by Kim Hyunmin kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Gwan-joo] As the government has presented criteria for lifting the indoor mask-wearing mandate, it appears that this will only be possible after the current winter resurgence of COVID-19 reaches its 'peak.' There is also a forecast that the Lunar New Year holiday next month will serve as a turning point for discussions on lifting the mandate.

According to the quarantine authorities on the 26th, only one of the four indicators set by the government as criteria for adjusting the indoor mask-wearing mandate has been met. On the 23rd, the government announced the adjustment plan for the indoor mask mandate, establishing the criteria as ▲ stabilization of patient occurrence ▲ reduction in severe cases and deaths ▲ stable medical response capacity ▲ acquisition of immunity in high-risk groups. These criteria assume a decline in the current seventh wave of COVID-19.

The only criterion currently met is the stable medical response capacity. The government set the standard as having more than 50% availability of intensive care unit (ICU) beds that can be mobilized within four weeks. The quarantine authorities assumed the number of ICU beds that could be mobilized within four weeks as 1,848, which was the highest number of severe care beds available during the summer resurgence period (August). The recent status shows 68.7% availability. This criterion is expected to be met to some extent as long as the number of severe cases does not increase sharply in the near future.

Conversely, achieving immunity acquisition in high-risk groups is expected to take more time. Specifically, the government set the targets as a 50% or higher additional vaccination rate for the elderly (aged 60 and above) during the winter season, and a 60% or higher additional vaccination rate for infection-vulnerable facilities during the winter. The quarantine authorities are actively encouraging additional vaccinations with updated vaccines to prevent severe cases. However, as of midnight on the 23rd, the additional vaccination rate for the elderly stands at 28.8%, and for infection-vulnerable facilities at 48.9%. It seems difficult to raise the vaccination rate significantly in a short period.

Ultimately, discussions on lifting the indoor mask-wearing mandate are expected to proceed only after stabilization of patient occurrence or reduction in severe cases and deaths. Both of these are deeply related to the scale of new confirmed cases. Stabilization of patient occurrence means a continuous decrease in weekly patient numbers for more than two weeks, while reduction in severe cases and deaths means a decrease in new severe cases compared to the previous week and a weekly fatality rate below 0.1%. Since an increase in new confirmed cases leads to a rise in severe cases, these two criteria cannot be considered separately.

The level of the seventh wave of COVID-19 is occurring at a lower level than initially predicted. When analyzing the winter resurgence last month, the quarantine authorities considered the emergence of new variants and the effect of bivalent vaccines as major assumptions, and even in the worst-case scenario calculated, the number of cases was expected to remain within 200,000. The current wave is occurring at a lower level than initially forecasted, and if this situation continues, the authorities expect the number of cases to reach around 70,000 to 80,000 next month and then gradually decline.

The quarantine authorities explained, "Experts commonly agree that the indoor mask-wearing mandate should be adjusted when patient occurrence passes the peak of the wave, severe cases and deaths begin to decline, and medical response capacity is sufficient. Under these criteria, we have prepared reference figures through expert discussions to judge whether the current wave situation remains manageable with quarantine capabilities and whether the peak has passed."

Considering these factors, the period around the Lunar New Year holiday is strongly mentioned as the likely time for implementing the adjustment plan. The timing of implementation will inevitably depend on how quarantine indicators move after the holiday. Since increased contact during family gatherings over the Lunar New Year could prolong the seventh wave, the overall scale of the wave will be comprehensively monitored afterward. The quarantine authorities stated, "While respecting each indicator as much as possible, if it is judged that the wave has passed its peak and entered a stabilization phase, the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters will discuss and decide on adjusting the mandate."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.