Is Another COVID-19 Pandemic Wave Coming... Unusual Surge in China, Concerns Over New Variant Emergence

China's Vaccine Coverage and Domestic Vaccine Effectiveness Decline... Emergence of Highly Transmissible New Variant Expected
Concerns Over Domestic Influx as Entry Restrictions May Ease Next Year
International Cooperation Stalls Amid Allegations of COVID-19 Death Data Concealment

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Haeyoung] Concerns are rising that new variant viruses could resurge worldwide as the number of COVID-19 cases in China surges following the lifting of lockdowns. There are also observations that variants could enter the country as China considers easing quarantine regulations for overseas arrivals starting next year.

On the 22nd (local time), major foreign media reported that China is the country with the least established national immunity system, making the emergence of new variant viruses highly likely. Bloomberg stated, "Concerns about new variant viruses are the first since the Omicron outbreak in 2021," adding, "China may face new challenges as it abandons its 'zero COVID' policy without proper preparation." It also predicted, "A COVID tsunami in China could lead to the emergence of dangerous variant viruses that spread worldwide."

The massive COVID-19 outbreak in China, with a population of 1.4 billion, could lead to the emergence of new variant viruses. Viruses mutate during transmission and replication. The low immunity of the Chinese population is also problematic. Vaccination rates among those aged 60 and over are low, and domestically developed vaccines have been nicknamed 'water vaccines' due to their poor infection prevention efficacy. Bloomberg explained, "While other countries have fought COVID infections and administered powerful messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines, China has avoided this, resulting in the population with the lowest immunity being exposed to the most transmissible virus, although it had not yet spread widely."

Most major variant viruses to date, such as Delta (India) and Omicron (South Africa), have emerged in regions with low vaccination rates or many immunocompromised individuals, suggesting that China could become the epicenter of new variant viruses. This also implies the possibility of a recurrence of the Delta variant virus crisis, which emerged in India at the end of 2020 before vaccines were available and infected millions in a short period.

Daniel Lucey, a professor at Dartmouth College in the U.S., predicted, "Within days, weeks, or months, Omicron subvariants will appear in China," adding, "They will have stronger transmissibility, higher fatality rates, and could neutralize drugs, vaccines, and COVID diagnostics."

As China considers abolishing facility quarantine regulations for overseas arrivals starting next month, concerns are raised that if new variant viruses emerge, they could spread worldwide and trigger a second COVID pandemic. Neighboring countries like South Korea are expected to suffer greater damage.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Despite this situation, international cooperation to prevent the spread of new variant viruses is struggling to gain momentum because the Chinese government is concealing related information such as COVID death statistics.

The World Health Organization (WHO) urged Chinese health authorities to disclose reliable information regarding COVID, stating, "The current increase in severe COVID cases in China is very concerning." WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus emphasized, "Some scientists believe that unchecked COVID spread could encourage the emergence of new variant viruses," and added, "Comprehensive risk assessment of the current situation requires detailed information on disease severity, hospital bed availability, and intensive care unit (ICU) support needs."

However, infection statistics such as COVID cases and deaths in China remain shrouded in secrecy. Although China shifted its quarantine policy from 'zero COVID' to 'with COVID' earlier this month, the government-reported death toll is only seven over fifteen days. Deaths are not counted as COVID-related unless the cause is pneumonia or respiratory failure. Meanwhile, crematorium demand has reportedly increased more than fivefold compared to usual, indicating that the actual death toll is much higher.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.