[Insight & Opinion] Spykman's Warning and the US-China Rivalry

In the spring of 1942, shortly after the United States entered World War II, Yale University professor Nicholas John Spykman published his book, America's Strategy in World Politics. He asserted that American isolationism was no longer a viable option. Spykman pointed out that even if the Western Hemisphere were effectively defended, encirclement resulting from a German-Japanese alliance victory would lead to ultimate defeat.

In the conclusion of this book, Spykman stated that the end of the war would not mark the end of power struggles. He opposed the complete elimination of the potential power of Germany and Japan. He viewed Russia, geographically expanded as much as Germany, as equally dangerous. His argument to maintain and utilize the military strength of the enemy Japan was a result of a highly rational strategic calculation to check China and Russia, whose power was expected to relatively increase in East Asia after the war. The potential power of China was much greater than Japan’s, and as China grew economically stronger, its political influence would also expand. Therefore, he insightfully predicted that the most difficult postwar issue would be China, not Japan.

The most important part of Spykman’s posthumous work, The Geography of Peace, is his analysis and critique of Mackinder’s geopolitics. He believed that Mackinder overestimated the potential power of the Heartland, which corresponds to present-day Russia. The core region of world politics, according to Spykman, was not the Heartland but the coastal areas adjacent to the Heartland, which he named the “Rimland.” The Rimland includes western Russia, the European continent, North Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Southwest Asia, and East Asia. Spykman warned that the greatest threat to U.S. security was a single great power dominating the Rimland region of Eurasia. Hence, he emphasized, “Who controls the Rimland rules Eurasia; who rules Eurasia controls the world.” China has risen as the greatest power in this Rimland.

On the 7th of last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia. He received an exceptionally warm welcome, different from President Biden’s visit in July. Following the China-Saudi bilateral talks on the 8th, where 34 agreements were signed, on the 9th, the first China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit was held with the participation of leaders from the six Gulf countries, agreeing to strengthen the “strategic partnership.”

They also immediately passed the “China-GCC Strategic Dialogue 2023?2027 Action Plan.” That evening, President Xi met with leaders of 21 Arab League countries and representatives of international organizations to hold the first China-Arab summit. They agreed to fully commit to building a “China-Arab Community of Shared Destiny” based on “eight joint actions” across eight areas, including food security and energy security, over the next three to five years.

China promised to increase its imports of oil and gas from the six Gulf countries and requested the use of the yuan-denominated crude oil futures trading platform established in Shanghai. This was a call to settle oil imports in yuan, signaling a move to replace the petrodollar with the petroyuan.

In the Middle East, where the United States has maintained dominant influence, China is rapidly expanding its presence as the U.S. is being pushed back. For China, which has already established friendly relations with Iran, building solid ties with Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia is a step closer to dominating the Eurasian Rimland. While the West confronts Russia over the Ukraine war, China is quietly expanding its sphere of power. It is time for the United States to reflect on Spykman’s warning.

Kim Dong-gi, author of The Power of Geopolitics

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.