North Korea Builds ICBM Track Record This Time... Do They Possess Core Technology?

Starting with the Hypersonic Missile Test Launch, Completed Hwaseong-Po-17
Atmospheric Reentry Technology, a Core ICBM Technology, Has Not Yet Been Verified

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea is boasting about its achievements by announcing the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), but it is known that it has not secured decisive technology.

The Workers' Party organ newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, on the 21st, flaunted the achievements of military provocations such as this year's ICBM test launches, stating, "Our 2022, which opened the curtain with the test launch of hypersonic missiles requiring advanced technology," and claimed, "It continued with the tremendous sonic booms of the 'Hwaseongpo-17' type, the strongest strategic weapon, shaking the planet one after another, followed by shocking moons." Hwaseongpo-17 refers to Hwaseong-17.

Kim Yo-jong, the deputy director of the Workers' Party and younger sister of Chairman Kim Jong-un, also stated in a statement the day before, "It is something that will be done soon, and something that will be known soon," indicating that they will soon demonstrate the ICBM atmospheric reentry technology. Accordingly, there is a possibility of launching the new ICBM Hwaseong-17 over the Japanese archipelago toward the Pacific Ocean. Unlike the high-angle launch that flies high and falls into the East Sea, it is expected to actually fly far and fall into the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii or closer to the United States.

North Korea has launched ICBMs eight times this year alone, overcoming major hurdles such as the liquid-fuel-based ICBM first-stage engine and second-stage separation, and recently announced the successful test of a solid-fuel engine.

However, experts believe that North Korea has not acquired the core technology of ICBMs, the atmospheric reentry technology. ICBMs must withstand temperatures exceeding 7,000 degrees Celsius and tremendous shock as they reenter the atmosphere at speeds of 7 to 8 km/s (more than 20 times the speed of sound) after ascending above 1,000 km altitude. This means they have not secured this technology.

It is unlikely that North Korea received the transmission signal from the warhead section, and even if it did, it is difficult to judge the acquisition of atmospheric reentry technology based on that.

If an ICBM launched at a normal angle (30?45 degrees) transmits any signal during atmospheric reentry, this signal would come from outside the communication line-of-sight (LOS), so it would not arrive directly in North Korea, and a separate antenna at the impact site would be needed to confirm the signal.

Also, if the reentry vehicle (RV), which corresponds to the warhead section, reentered normally, communication would likely be completely blocked due to plasma generated around the RV. Even if launched at a high angle instead of a normal angle so that the missile does not travel far and does not go beyond LOS, the reentry environment of high-angle and normal-angle launches is different, so the verification significance is limited.

Ryu Seong-yeop, a senior researcher at the 21st Century Military Research Institute, said, "If reentry proceeded well, there could be communication blackout periods, so verification based solely on signal reception is limited," expressing doubts about the basis raised by Deputy Director Kim.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.