[Politics, That Day...] Will the Blue 'Kim Kyung-soo's Spring' Return in Gyeongnam?

2018 Gyeongnam Governor Election, Democratic Party's Best Local Election Result in History
Year-End Pardon and Restoration of Rights Draw Attention... Will President Yoon Give Wings to Kim Kyung-soo?

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On June 13, 2018, politician Kim Kyung-soo experienced the ‘springtime of life.’ It was the day he caused a stir in Gyeongnam under the banner of the Democratic Party of Korea. With a vote share of 52.81%, politician Kim Kyung-soo was elected governor of Gyeongnam Province in the 7th nationwide simultaneous local elections.

Compared to his opponent, Liberty Korea Party candidate Kim Tae-ho, who received 42.95% of the vote, it was a decisive victory. It was the largest win for the Democratic Party in Gyeongnam’s local election history. Although politician Kim Doo-kwan was elected in the 2010 local elections, he ran as an independent candidate at that time.

Gyeongnam is not considered a favorable region for the Democratic Party. According to the National Election Commission, in the presidential election held on March 9, Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party candidate, secured 58.24% of the vote in Gyeongnam.

Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung only garnered 37.38%. Although Lee Jae-myung was a presidential candidate from Yeongnam (TK), he lost to Seoul-born Yoon Seok-youl by a margin of over 400,000 votes in Gyeongnam alone.

From the Democratic Party’s perspective, the 2018 Gyeongnam local election was a dreamlike result. At that time, candidate Kim Kyung-soo recorded overwhelming vote shares of 65% and 57% in Gimhae and Yangsan, the areas with the largest number of voters, respectively. He also achieved 61% in Changwon’s Seongsan District and 51% in Jinju.

Although politician Kim Kyung-soo spent his school years in Jinju, it was an unusual result for him to secure over 50% of the vote there under the Democratic Party banner.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Kim Kyung-soo Trusted by Former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in

Politician Kim Kyung-soo was known as the last secretary to former President Roh Moo-hyun. Even when the former president was living in Bongha Village, Gimhae, after his retirement, politician Kim Kyung-soo was by his side. Additionally, politician Kim Kyung-soo was one of the most trusted politicians by former President Moon Jae-in.

Building on his 2018 election as governor of Gyeongnam, politician Kim Kyung-soo nurtured dreams of moving toward the Blue House, but much changed after he became embroiled in the so-called ‘Druking’ case. On July 21, 2021, the Supreme Court upheld the original sentence of two years imprisonment for politician Kim Kyung-soo, who was charged with ‘obstruction of business by computer manipulation’ among other offenses.

Although he was acquitted of charges related to violations of the Public Official Election Act, the Druking case ultimately shook his political career. Politician Kim Kyung-soo will lose the right to run for public office until May 2028, five years after his scheduled release in May next year. Theoretically, this blocks his candidacy in the 2027 presidential election.

There is a variable. If President Yoon Seok-youl pardons and reinstates former Governor Kim Kyung-soo, a path could open.

However, the atmosphere surrounding a presidential special pardon is uneasy. While there are signs of a pardon, the reinstatement remains uncertain. Ultimately, former Governor Kim Kyung-soo conveyed through his wife that he does not wish to be granted parole.

Former Governor Kim Kyung-soo explained, “I do not want parole,” adding, “As someone who has consistently claimed innocence from the beginning, I have already informed Changwon Prison several times that I cannot accept the conditions.”

In a situation where a pardon for former President Lee Myung-bak is expected, this is a message that he will not be a political pawn for a forced or token pardon. This also relates to the uncomfortable sentiment toward the Blue House’s stance of granting a pardon but not reinstatement.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If Not Reinstated, Unable to Run Until 2028

If not reinstated, even if former Governor Kim Kyung-soo is released, his political activities will be greatly restricted. Not only will his path to candidacy be blocked, but his political moves will also be limited.

Politician Kim Kyung-soo was born in 1967 and is only 55 years old. In 2028, he will be in his early 60s, an age at which active political engagement is possible. The question is whether politician Kim Kyung-soo’s status will be maintained until then. No one can guarantee the political landscape six years from now. It could mean he remains a politician who caused a stir in the Gyeongnam gubernatorial election under the Democratic Party banner in the past.

A noteworthy point is that the Democratic Party internally still needs him. The pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in) faction has become fragmented without a central figure after the last presidential election. If politician Kim Kyung-soo returns, he could become a new focal point. This could act as a variable in the opposition’s presidential race, which is currently developing with Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung’s solo run.

It is difficult to say whether politician Kim Kyung-soo will stand in opposition to leader Lee Jae-myung even if he returns. However, the political dynamics could subtly shift. This could be both a factor that enhances the Democratic Party’s dynamism and a source of division.

If politician Kim Kyung-soo returns, will he be able to recreate the springtime of life he experienced in 2018?

If his political influence in Gyeongnam remains strong, he could even shake up the presidential race itself. However, it is hard to attribute the 2018 Gyeongnam gubernatorial election results solely to politician Kim Kyung-soo’s personal abilities. At that time, candidates running under the Democratic Party banner for mayoral elections in Gimhae and Yangsan were elected with vote shares of 63% and 56%, respectively.

Will Political Influence Remain Strong in Gyeongnam? People Power Party’s Countermeasures Are a Variable

While it is true that politician Kim Kyung-soo achieved the best results in Democratic Party political history in Gyeongnam, the election should be seen as generally favorable to the Democratic Party. In fact, some view the Gyeongnam gubernatorial election results as benefiting from former President Moon Jae-in’s ‘halo effect.’ This, combined with changes in the political environment, raises questions about former Governor Kim Kyung-soo’s political clout.

The fact that the Supreme Court confirmed his conviction is also a burden that former Governor Kim Kyung-soo must bear. The ruling party criticized former Governor Kim Kyung-soo for submitting a parole refusal letter and used his weaknesses as a point of attack. Park Jeong-ha, chief spokesperson for the People Power Party, sharply criticized on the 14th, stating, “Instead of reflecting on regressing and tarnishing democracy, he is acting as if he is a political prisoner.”

The fact that he became a focal point in the pardon political climate is an opportunity factor for former Governor Kim Kyung-soo. Politics is a living thing, but it is doubtful whether President Yoon Seok-youl will make a decision to give wings to politician Kim Kyung-soo. Even if such a situation arises, the relationship setting with leader Lee Jae-myung will be another variable determining politician Kim Kyung-soo’s smooth landing.

Of course, if leader Lee Jae-myung deviates from the presidential course and the Democratic Party faces the need to find an alternative, politician Kim Kyung-soo’s stock could rise again. The problem is that several hypothetical situations must align favorably for politician Kim Kyung-soo.

There is a view that politician Kim Kyung-soo could become a dark horse in the presidential race, but there are many hurdles to overcome before his political comeback.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.