Relentless Nuclear Armament Debate... "South Korea's Choice"

US Nuclear Expert: "Careful Examination Needed on Impact of South Korea-US Relations"

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] A U.S. nuclear expert stated that "the decision to arm with nuclear weapons is an autonomous choice that can be made solely by Koreans," but also advised that "the impact on the relationship with the major security partner, the United States, must be carefully considered."

Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control at the U.S. Department of State, previewed his presentation for the ‘2022 Korea-U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum’ hosted by the Sejong Institute on the 16th and 17th.

According to Jeong Seong-jang, Director of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, on the 15th, Einhorn pointed out in his presentation titled ‘Should South Korea Possess Nuclear Weapons?’ that South Korea is considering independent nuclear armament due to the increasing nuclear and missile threats from North Korea and uncertainties regarding the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

The recent emergence of arguments for nuclear armament stems from the urgent need to secure the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, but there is growing skepticism about the nuclear umbrella operated based on the Korea-U.S. alliance. The enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides subsidies only for electric vehicles produced domestically in the U.S., reflects an ‘America First’ attitude in the economic sector, further undermining trust in the Korea-U.S. alliance.

He mentioned NATO-style nuclear sharing, redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, and strengthening of U.S. extended deterrence, then stated, "A considerable number of South Koreans are no longer satisfied with these and are considering a fourth alternative: acquiring their own nuclear weapons capability."

He also addressed opposition to South Korea’s nuclear armament. He cited the enormous resources required for nuclear development, the still effective U.S. extended deterrence, increased risk of accidental nuclear conflict, potential fundamental alteration of the Korea-U.S. alliance, damage to Korea-China relations, and concerns about triggering Japan’s nuclear armament.

Einhorn said, "There is no ideal solution to South Korea’s security dilemma," adding, "South Korea will not get everything it wants, nor should it." He pointed out that if South Korea chooses independent nuclear armament, it will inevitably bear burdens and must accept them.

He continued, "Bridging or at least narrowing the gap between the U.S. and South Korea on extended deterrence issues could help reassure the South Korean public," and "It would also reduce the appeal of problematic options to address the North Korean threat."

This implies that by incorporating South Korea’s opinions more in the deployment process of U.S. strategic assets, incentives for South Korea to pursue the ‘problematic option’ of independent nuclear armament should be reduced.

The current administration also takes a passive stance on redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons domestically as part of efforts to induce North Korea’s denuclearization. CNN reported in May, during an interview with President Yoon Suk-yeol, that "(President Yoon) ruled out the possibility of redeploying tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula." Foreign Minister Park Jin also drew a line on May 2 during a parliamentary confirmation hearing, stating, "The Korea-U.S. alliance is not discussing tactical nuclear deployment."

The current administration’s reluctance toward nuclear armament, including tactical nuclear redeployment, stems from facing a highly political decision that would deviate from denuclearization norms pledged to the international community, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the Korea-U.S. Atomic Energy Agreement, and the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Some experts propose NATO-style nuclear sharing as an alternative. The U.S. is known to be negative about deploying nuclear weapons within South Korea, making the feasibility of nuclear armament low. Since the 1960s, countries like Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and T?rkiye have operated a nuclear sharing system where U.S. tactical nuclear weapons are deployed domestically and operated through a nuclear planning group. While the U.S. retains final authority for use, other non-nuclear alliance members jointly participate in nuclear weapon operational decisions such as target selection.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.