[The Editors' Verdict] Anxious Perspectives on the U.S. Midterm Elections

Election Results Trigger Major Shift in US Political Landscape
Impact on South Korea's Diplomacy, Security, and Economy
US Political Instability May Pose Risks

If we were to name the biggest global political events scheduled for this year, they would be China’s 20th Party Congress and the U.S. midterm elections. At the 20th Party Congress held last month, China not only confirmed President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third term as expected but also surprised the world by appointing officials who further solidified his one-man rule. Concerns that China would prioritize control over economic development caused the market capitalization of Chinese companies listed in New York to evaporate by 106 trillion won overnight.

Now, the second major global event, the U.S. midterm elections, is approaching on the 8th (local time). Although it is a domestic political event in the U.S., it is described as “global” because its impact will be significant worldwide. It is also closely linked to our country’s economy.

In this midterm election, 35 of the 100 U.S. senators and all 435 members of the House of Representatives will be re-elected. Additionally, 36 governors, 46 state legislators, and 30 state attorneys general will be newly elected. It is called a midterm election because it takes place halfway through the four-year presidential term. It also serves as a midterm evaluation of the incumbent president.

Currently, the Democratic Party holds the majority in both the Senate and the House, but the political landscape in the U.S. is expected to undergo significant changes depending on the midterm election results. So far, the situation is far from favorable for the Democrats. According to recent polls released as the election approaches, the Republicans are expected to comfortably take control of the House. The Senate is also generally leaning toward the Republicans.

Midterm elections have generally not been favorable to the incumbent president and the ruling party. However, this is unlikely to serve as an excuse for President Biden. Various polls show that even Democratic supporters do not believe the U.S. is heading in the right direction. If the Democrats lose both the Senate and the House in this election, President Biden will likely face accountability and rapidly enter a lame-duck period. The momentum behind the policies he has pursued will also weaken and falter.

Among President Biden’s foreign policies, the tough stance on China is expected to continue regardless of the election outcome. What concerns us immediately is whether the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will be amended. The IRA provides subsidies only for electric vehicles produced within the U.S., raising concerns that it could significantly harm our automobile companies. Our government has pointed out these discriminatory elements and has been working with the U.S. government and Congress to amend the law. However, considering that amendments require approval from both the Senate and the House as well as the president’s consent, it may become even more difficult to revise the IRA in the future.

Among U.S. foreign policies, attention is also focused on whether U.S. support for Ukraine will continue. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February, the U.S. has poured in more than 26 trillion won. As the war drags on, some Republicans have begun to express negative opinions about supporting Ukraine.

There are also talks that former President Donald Trump will announce his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election immediately after this election. Over the remaining two years of President Biden’s term, American society is expected to be shaken once again. Political instability in the U.S. will not benefit us at all. It only adds another risk.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.