US Midterm Elections D-1, Final Polls Show Tight Race Within Margin of Error... "Economy Is the Variable"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] In the final polls ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, the support rates for both parties are engaged in a close race within the margin of error. However, President Joe Biden's approval rating remains in the 40% range, and ongoing concerns about the economy and other issues are strengthening the outlook for a Republican victory.

According to a poll released by NBC on the 6th (local time), 48% of respondents supported a Democratic victory in the upcoming midterm elections, while 47% supported the Republicans, showing a tight race. This reverses the previous month's poll where Republicans led Democrats by 1 percentage point at 48%, but the results are still within the margin of error (±3.5%).

NBC noted that in the poll conducted from the 3rd to the 5th of this month, enthusiasm among Democratic supporters to vote has increased ahead of the midterms. In the previous month's poll, the voter enthusiasm among Democratic supporters (69%) was significantly lower than that of Republican supporters (78%). In this poll, both parties' supporters showed similar enthusiasm levels at 72-73%.

However, despite the gains in the polls, NBC pointed out that the overall election environment remains unfavorable for the Democrats. In this poll, President Biden's approval rating was 44%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. This is slightly lower than the approval ratings of former Presidents Barack Obama (45%) and Donald Trump (46%) just before their midterm election losses, when Democrats and Republicans lost 63 and 40 seats in the House, respectively.

Seventy-two percent of voters responded that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Additionally, 81% expressed dissatisfaction with the current U.S. economy, with 50% being very dissatisfied and 31% somewhat dissatisfied. Furthermore, 47% of voters indicated they want a 'significant' change in President Biden's policy direction. Voters identified the most important national issues as threats to democracy (23%), jobs and the economy (20%), and cost of living (17%).

On the same day, a poll released by ABC and The Washington Post (WP) also confirmed a closely divided public opinion within the margin of error between Democrats and Republicans. Among registered voters, 49% preferred the Republican candidate in their House district, while 48% preferred the Democrat. When asked which party they would vote for in this election, Republicans and Democrats received 50% and 48% support, respectively.

WP noted, "Historically, the incumbent party (Democrats) needs a clear lead to have a chance of winning." In the 2018 midterms, Democrats led Republicans by 7 percentage points at the same point in the campaign. Additionally, in the 2010 and 2014 midterms, Republicans won by larger margins than polls had indicated.

In other words, although the final polls show a tight race within the margin of error, it is generally understood that Republican support tends to be underestimated in polls compared to actual voting results. ABC reported, "What is clear is that the Democrats are facing a strong headwind," adding, "Dissatisfaction with the economy and President Biden's low approval ratings are fueling Republican expectations in the midterms."

Voter enthusiasm among Democratic supporters was also 8 percentage points lower than in the 2018 election. In this poll, 80% of Republican supporters said they would vote, while Democratic enthusiasm was slightly lower at 74%.

The economy was cited as the most influential factor in the midterm vote by 80% of voters. Inflation was pointed out by 77%. Issues emphasized by Republicans, such as crime and immigration, were noted by 69% and 59%, respectively, while threats to democracy and abortion, highlighted by Democrats, were cited by 74% and 62%, respectively.

When asked which party would better handle economic issues, 52% of respondents chose the Republicans, while Democrats received 38%. On inflation, Republicans (50%) were also seen as better able to respond than Democrats (38%). Regarding crime, Democrats received 34% support versus 54% for Republicans, showing a 20 percentage point gap. Conversely, on abortion, 50% believed Democrats would handle the issue better, ahead of Republicans at 37%.

Additionally, 42% of voters expressed concern that their financial situation has worsened compared to two years ago. This is significantly higher than the 14% in 2018 and 20% in the 2020 exit polls. Only 18% said their situation has improved compared to two years ago. ABC pointed out, "This is half of what it was at the time of President Biden's inauguration."

Meanwhile, the November 8 midterm elections, which will reshape the U.S. Congress, will elect 35 of the 100 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, governors in 36 states, the mayor of Washington D.C., state legislators in 46 states, and attorneys general in 30 states. Currently, political circles widely expect the Republicans to regain the majority in the House.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.