Korean Peninsula Caught in the Storm of 'North Korea Threat'... "Possibility of ICBM Launch Instead of Nuclear Test"

North Korea Threatens "Enhanced Measures" Against Vigilant Storm
Repeated Provocations After Condemnation and Statements
China Says "Regional Security Destabilized Due to ROK-US Drills"

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] North Korea is escalating its threats by labeling the South Korea-U.S. joint air exercise 'Vigilant Storm' as a military provocation and stating it will "consider strengthened next steps." Given the recent pattern of repeating provocations after issuing condemnations or statements, concerns are growing that North Korea may conduct a seventh nuclear test or a similarly significant provocation.

However, the differing stances between the U.S. and China surrounding the Korean Peninsula remain parallel, making diplomatic pressure from the international community difficult. While the U.S. has warned of the "end of the regime" if North Korea uses nuclear weapons and rejected any possibility of recognizing it as a nuclear state, China supports North Korea, warning that the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises could lead to unexpected consequences.

North Korea Ready for Nuclear Test... Concerns Over Additional Provocations

Last January, Korean Central News Agency reported on a parade commemorating the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, revealing an upgraded version of the short-range ballistic missile 'North Korean Iskander'
[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the Korean Central News Agency on the 1st, North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in a spokesperson’s statement the previous day, "We are prepared to take all necessary measures to defend the sovereignty of the state, the safety of the people, and territorial integrity against external military threats, and if the U.S. continues to carry out severe military provocations, we will consider strengthened next-step measures."

In particular, it reiterated that "the recent military exercises of the Korean People's Army units were conducted in an unstable security environment created by the U.S. and South Korea," once again blaming the South for the rising military tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

Earlier, on the last day of the Defense Training on the 28th, from 11:59 a.m. to 12:18 p.m., North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from the Tongcheon area in Gangwon Province into the East Sea. At that time, North Korea also blamed the South for the provocation. Through the external propaganda media 'Meari,' it directly criticized the Defense Training as "reckless confrontation behavior."

U.S.: "Use of Nuclear Weapons Means End"... China: "South Korea-U.S. Exercises Cause Tension"

Ned Price, U.S. Department of State Spokesperson

Amid rising crisis due to North Korea’s continuous provocations and threats, the confrontation between the U.S. and China over the Korean Peninsula appears to be intensifying.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price on the 31st (local time) dismissed the possibility of recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state, saying, "It can never be policy." He added, "Since last year’s review of North Korea policy, complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has been our goal and we do not expect that to change," reiterating the U.S. stance that its North Korea policy is based on denuclearization.

On the other hand, China’s state-run media Global Times reported that the South Korea-U.S. joint air exercises, which had been suspended since 2017, resumed after five years, warning that the exercises would further escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Citing experts, it even claimed that "it could lead to unexpected consequences."

China’s sensitive reaction to the South Korea-U.S. joint air exercises is interpreted as viewing them not only as targeting North Korea but also as U.S.-led military drills aimed at China and Russia. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian recently criticized, "(The deployment of the U.S. strategic bomber B-52 to Australia) will escalate regional tensions and seriously undermine peace and stability."

Nuclear Test as 'Last Card'... "Possibility of ICBM Launch"

North Korea unveils warhead capable of striking the US mainland with ICBM
[Image source=Yonhap News]

While interpretations suggest North Korea’s threat hints at the possibility of a seventh nuclear test, some speculate that the "next step" could be the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Rather than immediately conducting a nuclear test, it is analyzed that North Korea may raise the level of provocation by resuming ICBM test launches and then deliberate on the timing of the nuclear test.

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said regarding North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement, "The timing of the strengthened military measures is expected around the U.S. midterm elections on the 7th," adding, "From the perspective of effectively pressuring the U.S. and keeping the nuclear test as the last card, the measures are expected to involve ICBMs such as Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17."

He further explained, "Since construction is still ongoing at the Dongchang-ri West Sea Satellite Launching Station, the possibility of an ICBM launch near Pyongyang is high," and added, "After the ICBM launch, North Korea will likely observe the U.S. response before deciding on the timing and whether to conduct the seventh nuclear test."

Meanwhile, the South Korean government emphasized a firm deterrence posture toward North Korea while repeatedly urging dialogue. A Ministry of Unification official stated, "The current situation clearly results from North Korea’s reckless nuclear and missile development," emphasizing, "We urge North Korea to stop provocations and respond positively to the bold initiatives we have proposed."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.