North Korea's 'Criticism to Provocation' Pattern... Concerns Over Additional Provocations

On the 14th, 15th, and 19th, issued statements and harshly criticized the national defense training through media
Continued low-intensity provocations with coastal artillery firing considering China's Party Congress

North Korea's coastal artillery position

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea is showing a repetitive pattern of shifting the responsibility for escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula onto South Korea and conducting additional provocations. With our military planning to continue the Hoguk Training, there is a high possibility of further provocations.

On the 14th and 15th, North Korea’s General Staff spokesperson issued "statements" criticizing South Korea’s artillery fire and claimed that they took countermeasures in response. On the 14th, they violated the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement by firing about 560 artillery rounds.

Four days later, on the 19th, the North Korean publication Chosun Today claimed in an article titled "The South’s Provocations Are Their Own Doom" that South Korea has been conducting numerous "war provocations" from the August joint South Korea-U.S. exercise “Ulchi Freedom Shield” (UFS) to this month’s Hoguk Training. From late night on the 18th to the 19th, North Korea fired over 350 artillery rounds into the buffer zones in the East and West Seas. The impact points were within the northern buffer zone of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) as per the September 19 agreement, and no shells landed within South Korean territorial waters. At that time, the military repeatedly sent warning communications stating that North Korea’s artillery fire violated the September 19 Military Agreement and demanded an immediate halt.

The propaganda outlet Meori on the 22nd published an article titled "Reckless Acts Adding Fuel to the Fire," condemning South Korea’s annual outdoor maneuver training, Hoguk Training, as "reckless confrontation acts that increase military instability and danger on the Korean Peninsula." Since North Korea has repeatedly provoked around the time it criticized our military’s Hoguk Training through its media, additional provocations are expected to continue for the time being.

Hoguk Training is an annual outdoor maneuver exercise conducted in the second half of each year, involving the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps conducting various drills in the front and rear areas until the 28th. There is also a possibility that North Korea may use this as a pretext to carry out tactical provocations in border areas.

In November 2010, North Korea protested during Hoguk Training, asking whether the training was an attack and demanded the suspension of the ongoing artillery training by the Yeonpyeongdo Marine Corps. North Korea then shelled Yeonpyeongdo with about 200 artillery rounds and shifted responsibility by claiming they "punished the South’s military provocations with a thunderbolt."

Some analysts evaluate that North Korea’s artillery fire is a provocation calibrated during the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (Party Congress), which runs until the 22nd. Considering that this is a major event where Chinese President Xi Jinping’s third term is decided, North Korea appears to be moderating the intensity while maintaining a phase of military tension.

A military official said, "It is difficult for North Korea to ignore the Party Congress marking Xi Jinping’s third term," adding, "It seems they are showing some form of goodwill to China while continuing their provocations."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.