'Conscripted or Fled': Russian Men Disappearing from the Streets... The Aftermath

Number of Restaurant Orders in Moscow City Down 29% Compared to Same Period Last Year Over Past Two Weeks
"Moscow Situation Similar to Athens in 2008 During Economic Hardship"

The New York Times recently analyzed that the noticeable decrease in men on the streets of Moscow over the past few weeks is due to many men being taken away by the government's mobilization order or fleeing abroad and other places to avoid forced conscription and the possibility of martial law declaration. Photo by EPA, Yonhap News Agency

[Asia Economy Reporter Bang Je-il] On the 19th (local time), The New York Times (NYT) reported that the number of men noticeably decreased in restaurants, communities, and parties on the streets of Moscow following Russia's mobilization order for reservists.

The NYT analyzed that the reason for the significant decrease in men on the streets of Moscow over the past few weeks is because many men were either taken away by the government's mobilization order or fled abroad, fearing forced conscription and the possible declaration of martial law.

Until recently, government conscription officers guarded subway entrances to check men's documents, arrested dozens at homeless shelters, and raided cafes to search for conscription targets. Russian President Vladimir Putin also imposed movement restrictions on eight areas near the Ukraine border within Russia on the 19th.

◆ Russian Authorities in Final Stages of Conscription Process

The exact number of men who have fled Russia so far has not been officially tallied. However, according to the Kazakh government, at least 200,000 Russian men have crossed into Kazakhstan. Tens of thousands are also estimated to have headed to Georgia, Armenia, Israel, and other countries.

President Putin announced on the 14th that a total of 220,000 people had been conscripted under the mobilization order, but the general view is that many more have left Russia. Although the Russian authorities have completed the conscription process, the absence of men is leading to economic downturns.

In Moscow city restaurants, the number of orders exceeding 1,500 rubles (about 35,000 won) has decreased by 29% compared to the same period last year over the past two weeks.

According to the Russian economic newspaper Kommersant, Sberbank, the country's largest bank, closed 529 branches in September alone. The airline Aeroflot suspended operations at its branch on Petrovka Street in central Moscow.

Olya, the manager of the popular Moscow barbershop 'Chop-Chop,' told the NYT, "This is usually the time when the shop is full of customers, but now half of them are gone." Alexey Emilov, founder of the Chop-Chop barbershop chain, said that among the 70 stores nationwide, customer numbers have significantly dropped in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, adding, "The current situation in Moscow reminds me of Athens in 2008 during the economic crisis."

◆ War Expected to Accelerate Russia’s Population Crisis

The ongoing war is expected to accelerate Russia's population crisis. According to a report by Bloomberg on the previous day, as of August 1, Russia's population had decreased by 475,500 from the beginning of the year, totaling 145.1 million. This is 3.2 million fewer than the 148.3 million recorded in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed.

Igor Yefremov, a demography expert at the Moscow Gaidar Institute, pointed out, "As expected, if military operations continue over the next few months, the number of births in Russia next year will fall below 1.2 million, which would be the lowest level in modern Russian history."

Elena Churilova, a researcher at the International Population and Health Research Institute under the Moscow Higher School of Economics, also forecasted, "During times of uncertainty, many couples tend to postpone childbirth until the situation stabilizes. We will see a lower birth rate next year."

Russian economist Alexander Isakov stated, "Russia's population has been declining, and the war will increase the decline due to immigration, reduced birth rates, and casualties. This will weaken economic growth potential and place a burden on budget policies."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.