[Inside Chodong] The Whale Quiz and the First-Generation New Towns

The Government Focuses Only on Supply, Missing the Core of Redevelopment for Aging Areas
Real Estate Populism Measures Undermine Policy Credibility

The chairman and about 20 operating committee members of the "1st Generation New Town Redevelopment Union" are urging the enactment of the 1st Generation New Town Special Act within this year in front of the Presidential Office in Yongsan, Seoul, on the morning of the 1st. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Cha Wanyong] This is a whale quiz and answer from the recently concluded hit drama "Extraordinary Attorney Woo." "If a female sperm whale weighing 22 tons eats a giant squid weighing 500 kg and gives birth to an egg weighing 1.3 tons six hours later, what would be the weight of this female sperm whale? The answer is 'Whales cannot lay eggs.' Whales are mammals, so they give birth to live young, not eggs. You cannot solve the problem by focusing only on weight. You need to see the core."

The government is struggling with the issues of the 1st generation new towns. Focusing on supply through redevelopment to win the presidential election, it has not even been able to present a plan. The "1st Generation New Town Redevelopment Pledge," which promises an additional supply of 100,000 households by increasing the floor area ratio (FAR) to 500%, looks like a problem of guessing the weight of a sperm whale.

It is missing the core issues of aging redevelopment such as lack of parking spaces, corrosion of water and sewage pipes, noise between floors, and expansion of transportation infrastructure. Fundamental problems such as increased number of vehicles compared to when the 1st generation new towns were built in 1989, apartments with rusty water, poor transportation networks, and narrow roads for access to Seoul need to be resolved.

However, the government is focusing on apartment redevelopment to increase supply by raising the FAR. Moreover, the FAR of the 1st generation new towns is around 200%, and if it is raised to 500%, the current roads, electricity, and water supply systems do not even have the capacity to accommodate this.

The 1st generation new towns were originally residential cities near Seoul, created by directly adopting the Japanese new town model to appease public sentiment after Seoul housing prices soared following the 1988 Seoul Olympics. Since only three years passed from the plan announcement in 1989 to occupancy, the infrastructure was poorly constructed. In fact, water and sewage, power supply, and transportation infrastructure are still insufficient. Ultimately, the plan to increase housing supply by raising the FAR requires the premise of redesigning the infrastructure from scratch. It means the city must be completely overhauled.

This is practically impossible. Among the 1st generation new towns, apartments that have exceeded the 30-year reconstruction period already number 300,000 households. Finding places for these households to stay during construction is nonsense. The only solution is phased redevelopment, but it is obvious that this will be embroiled in fairness controversies. Even if phased redevelopment proceeds, it will inevitably take decades. Both the government that pledged this as if it could be done immediately and the new town residents who believed and raised expectations lack realism.

Nevertheless, the government continues to give false hope to the residents of the 1st generation new towns. Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Heeryong even put his ministerial position on the line and performed a show promising to expedite the master plan as much as possible. But making the master plan quickly is not the important thing. The core is whether the plan is feasible and whether the current government can implement it.

Policy should be approached with cold economic logic. Real estate populist measures that blur the focus only undermine the credibility of policies. Even now, it is necessary to carefully identify what can be implemented immediately, what is impossible, what is urgent, and what requires time, and create a sincere plan. It is time to think first about measures that help improve aging residential welfare, not raise apartment prices in the 1st generation new towns.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.