COVID Peak Revised Down from 300,000 to 150,000 Cases... What Is the Reason?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] The quarantine authorities have repeatedly lowered their forecast for the peak of the resurgence, which was initially expected to reach up to 300,000 cases per day, first to below 200,000 and then to around 150,000 cases. Analysis suggests that the domestic reinfection rate and the transmissibility of variants have influenced this adjustment.

At a regular briefing on the 4th, Baek Kyung-ran, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), stated that based on predictions from KDCA and Gachon University College of Medicine, the number of confirmed cases this month is expected to peak between 110,000 and 190,000 before declining. The midpoint estimate indicates a peak around 150,000 cases. Considering that daily new cases ranged between 100,000 and 110,000 from the 2nd to the 6th, it is possible that the peak period has already passed.

The downward revision of these projections is attributed to the reinfection rate and the transmissibility of the BA.2.75 variant. Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine explained that the reason for the smaller scale compared to initial forecasts is that "Korea's reinfection rate is estimated at 5-6%, which is about half to one-third lower than other countries," adding, "Most domestic infections occurred during the Omicron wave from February to April, so there has not been a significant decline in immunity."

Another factor is that the BA.2.75 variant, known as 'Centaurus,' has not demonstrated the level of transmissibility initially predicted. Baek Soon-young, Professor Emeritus at the Catholic University College of Medicine, pointed out, "There was an excessive expectation of BA.2.75 at first," and noted, "Except for India, BA.2.75 has not shown significant transmissibility worldwide." BA.2.75 has eight more spike gene mutations than BA.2, and it has been analyzed to have a strong ability to evade antibodies formed by vaccination or infection.

Recent quarantine indicators show a slowing trend in the increase of cases. The infection reproduction number recorded over four days from the 31st of last month to the 3rd of this month was 1.13, down from 1.29 the previous week, marking a steady decline over the past four weeks. The figures for the four weeks starting from the second week of last month were 1.58 → 1.54 → 1.29 → 1.13.

However, experts commonly suggest that the resurgence may occur again from autumn to winter as temperatures drop. Jeong Ki-seok, Chair of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, said, "This wave will peak at some level and then decline, but the concern is that the entire population's immunity will wane as we enter winter," adding, "The advisory committee will actively propose and supplement policies to ensure the situation passes without problems."

The authorities also anticipate the possibility of a resurgence in winter. Lee Sang-won, Head of Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, stated, "This wave does not mean the end of all outbreaks; after the decline, we expect a period of stagnation," and added, "We predict that another wave may occur again in winter."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.