COVID-19 Resurgence Peak: 200,000 or 300,000? The Key Factor Is...

Recent Decline in Peak Due to Improved Quarantine Situation and Reduced Impact of BA.2.75
Reduced Support Funds and Increased Out-of-Pocket Treatment Costs... Possibility of 'Hidden Infections' Emerging

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] As the rate of increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases slows down, health authorities have predicted that the peak of the outbreak, which was previously estimated to reach up to 300,000 cases, may form lower than expected. However, 'hidden infections' caused by changes in the COVID-19 testing and support system are expected to be a variable.

The daily number of new confirmed cases had been showing a 'doubling' phenomenon, where the number doubles compared to the previous week, but the rate of increase has recently slowed. On this day, the number of new COVID-19 confirmed cases was 44,689, which is 1.24 times that of a week ago. Throughout the past week, the number of new confirmed cases has been about 1.2 to 1.3 times higher than the previous week.

Health authorities and experts have recently forecasted the possibility of a downward adjustment in the peak of the outbreak. Earlier, on the 13th of last month, the authorities announced countermeasures in preparation for 300,000 daily confirmed cases. Baek Kyung-ran, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, stated at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters briefing on the 29th of last month, "There is a possibility that the peak, at around 200,000 cases, lower than initially expected, may form earlier than anticipated."

The fact that the spread of the BA.2.75 variant, also known as 'Centaurus,' has not yet been clearly confirmed seems to have influenced this outlook. BA.2.75 is known to have eight more spike gene mutations than Omicron BA.2, allowing it to bind effectively to cells and strongly evade existing immunity. Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine said, "The spread of BA.2.75 appears to be slower than expected, and its impact on the size of this outbreak will be limited. Considering various evidence, I think it will be somewhat difficult to reach the average of about 300,000 cases that experts had anticipated."

However, the scale of 'hidden infections' outside official counts remains a variable. Compared to the Omicron outbreak in February and March of this year, support for COVID-19 isolation has decreased, leading to concerns that more people with symptoms may not be getting confirmed diagnoses. Isolation support payments for COVID-19 confirmed patients have been selectively provided only to households with median income at or below 100% since the 11th of last month. Medical fees and medication costs during home treatment are now borne by the patients themselves.

COVID-19 testing has also become more stringent. The number of screening clinics where high-risk groups and those testing positive on self-test kits can receive free testing has decreased compared to the Omicron outbreak period. Temporary screening clinics numbered 218 on February 10th this year but decreased to 36 as of the 29th of last month. Although patients can be confirmed positive at hospitals conducting professional rapid antigen tests, there have been cases where asymptomatic testers were charged non-reimbursable fees of about 30,000 to 50,000 KRW.

Accordingly, starting from the 2nd, health authorities plan to allow asymptomatic individuals who have had contact with confirmed cases to receive testing covered by health insurance. However, cases for personal reasons or judgments, such as submitting a negative test certificate to a company, will continue to be excluded from health insurance coverage as before.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.