"COVID-19 Resurgence to Peak Within 1-2 Weeks... Duration Shortening and Scale Likely to Decrease"

KDCA Answers Public Questions with Experts
Professor Jeong Jae-hoon: "Confirmed Cases Won't Reach 300,000"
"Pandemic Policies Should Be Viewed from a Sustainable Perspective"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This summer, the peak of the COVID-19 resurgence could arrive 1 to 2 weeks earlier than initially expected, and the peak scale is likely to be smaller than previous forecasts, according to an analysis.

On the 28th, Professor Jaehoon Jung of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine stated at the 'COVID-19 Expert Invitation Briefing' hosted by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), "Considering various evidence, it seems a bit difficult to reach the 300,000 confirmed cases that experts had anticipated."

Professor Jung added, "The predictions made by experts 2 to 3 weeks ago were close to the worst-case scenario, but now that the information is more certain, the scale of the outbreak may be somewhat smaller than predicted. The rate of increase in cases has slowed significantly this week, yet a considerable outbreak will continue, likely forming a peak around next week or the week after."

Previously, the KDCA and experts forecasted that the current wave would peak after mid-next month, with daily confirmed cases potentially reaching the 300,000 range.

As reasons for the possible smaller scale of the outbreak than expected, Professor Jung cited: ▲ higher-than-expected participation in the fourth vaccine dose helping reduce infections; ▲ the transmissibility of the BA.2.75 variant, known as 'Kentauros,' being less concerning than feared, reducing its likelihood of driving the outbreak; and ▲ most Koreans having been infected during the Omicron wave, resulting in a lower reinfection rate compared to other countries.

Professor Jung explained, "With international exchanges reactivated, there is currently a 1 to 2-week lag between global outbreak trends and those in Korea. Looking at recent situations in major countries, some appear to have already reached their peaks." However, he emphasized, "Since the outbreak is occurring simultaneously worldwide, accurate predictions based on data are difficult, and it is more important to accurately forecast the number of critically ill patients rather than confirmed cases to secure sufficient hospital beds."

The briefing was conducted by collecting public questions about the COVID-19 resurgence through the KDCA call center and the public communication team, with experts providing answers. Many questions addressed the possibility of reintroducing social distancing measures instead of the government's recently emphasized 'autonomous quarantine.'

Professor Jung stated, "Quarantine policies must consider both costs and effectiveness. While uniform social distancing has its benefits, the social and economic damages are significant, so there is scientific consensus or agreement that policy directions should minimize harm to the public." Regarding social distancing, he assessed, "Although strong social distancing has some effect, we are now at a point where the benefits are diminishing compared to costs such as economic losses for small business owners and academic setbacks for children."

He also said, "The state's responsibility is not only to enforce uniform social distancing but also to secure medical and quarantine response capabilities in advance and communicate them to the public. Quarantine policies should be viewed from a sustainability perspective."

KDCA Commissioner Kyung-ran Baek responded to criticism that support for confirmed and isolated patients has been reduced, lowering acceptance of autonomous quarantine, saying, "We apologize for the reduction in support outside of vulnerable groups to continue assistance for them. However, we continue to provide support for treatment costs, especially for critically ill patients or those requiring hospitalization, who bear relatively high out-of-pocket expenses."

Professor Namjoong Kim, Chair of the Korean Society of Infectious Diseases and an infectious disease specialist at Seoul National University Hospital, emphasized the necessity of the fourth vaccine dose and urged participation. He said, "The fourth dose undoubtedly contributes to reducing the rate of critical illness and fatality. Under current circumstances, it is more reasonable to get vaccinated with the existing vaccine rather than waiting for the updated vaccine."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.