Russia Tightens Gas Pipeline Shutoff Further... "Putin Is Playing a Strategic Game"

Russia Reduces Gas Supply Through Nord Stream 1 Pipeline to 20%
Experts Say Lower Supply More Effective Than Complete Cut
Germany Opposes, Saying No Technical Reason for Supply Reduction

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] Russia has announced a further significant reduction in its natural gas supply to Europe. European countries, including Germany, which are facing an energy crisis, have raised critical voices, saying the reduction is being made without technical reasons.

On the 25th (local time), major foreign media such as The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Russia will further suspend the operation of turbines in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline connecting Germany through the Baltic Sea seabed. Russia's state-owned gas company Gazprom had previously resumed operation of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on the 21st after a ten-day suspension for regular maintenance.

Gazprom stated that "gas exports to Germany will be reduced to about one-fifth of the total pipeline capacity," attributing this to issues related to sanctions on the turbines. Currently, only two turbines are operating at the Portovaya compressor station, and with one more turbine ceasing operation, only one turbine will remain operational.

Accordingly, the supply, which is currently only 40% of capacity, will decrease to 20%, expected to take effect from the 27th. The company forecasted, "From 7 a.m. Moscow time on the 27th, the daily gas transport volume at the Portovaya compressor station will be reduced to half of the current 67 million cubic meters per day, down to 33 million cubic meters per day." The daily transport volume of 33 million cubic meters corresponds to 20% of the total capacity of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

This decision by Russia is interpreted as retaliation against Western economic sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine. Experts analyze that Russia aims to create political fractures in Europe through energy weaponization and maximize its influence on energy security. Simon Talia Pietra, Senior Researcher at the economic think tank Bruegel, explained, "Russia is playing a strategic game," adding, "Lower supply levels like this are better than a complete cut for manipulating the market and optimizing geopolitical influence." The German government condemned Russia's announcement on the same day, stating, "There is no technical reason for the supply reduction."

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Russia's calculations are indeed proving accurate. As Europe tries to fill gas storage ahead of winter, political crises are sporadically occurring, and Germany now faces concerns about gas shortages for households, hospitals, other critical sectors, and industrial use. Particularly, companies highly dependent on gas, such as those in the chemical sector, may face risks of complete production halts or layoffs, WSJ predicted. On the same day, Germany's Ifo Institute analyzed that energy issues pressured German business sentiment in July and warned, "Germany is on the brink of a recession."

The situation is similar in other countries. According to recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Hungary, which is highly dependent on Russian gas, could see its economic output decline by up to 6.5% if supply is completely cut off. The IMF projected that Italy could experience up to a 5.7% drop, while Austria and Germany could each see nearly a 3% decrease in economic output.

The worst-case scenario for Europe is if Russia also halts energy supplies through other routes. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has blocked the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which passes through Belarus and Poland into Germany. According to raw material data firm ICIS, in the first half of this month, Europe’s imports of Russian gas dropped by about 70% compared to the previous year. Aside from that, only small amounts of fuel are imported in the form of LNG by ship.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.