"Over 70,000 Cases Again After 83 Days"… 32% of Confirmed Cases Are Children and Adolescents Under 18

If BA.5 Becomes the Dominant Variant, Up to 250,000-290,000 Cases Expected Daily by Mid-Next Month
Impact of High Activity, Low Vaccination Rate, and Reinfection Risk Among Teens

On the 19th, when 73,582 new COVID-19 cases were reported, marking the highest number in 83 days, officials at the Disaster and Safety Situation Room of Songpa District Office in Seoul reviewed the current status of COVID-19 cases. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

The number of confirmed cases has surged again, doubling within a week, as highly transmissible and immune-evasive variant viruses have consecutively entered the country. It is the first time in 83 days since April 27 (76,765 cases) that daily confirmed cases have exceeded 70,000.

The government predicted that due to the COVID-19 resurgence, daily new confirmed cases could reach up to 200,000 as early as mid-September. However, given the current rate of increase, this figure is likely to materialize as soon as next week or early next month. This means the peak of the resurgence could arrive about a month and a half earlier than the government's forecast and approximately three weeks earlier than experts' predictions.

Could the peak of the outbreak be brought forward by more than a month?

The daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 peaked at 621,148 on March 17 during the Omicron wave, then steadily declined to below 100,000 by mid-April, and remained under 10,000 for 19 consecutive days from June 10 to 28. However, since surpassing 10,000 again on June 29, the number rose to over 40,000 on July 13, and within three weeks, it climbed back to the 70,000 range.

As confirmed cases increased, hospital bed occupancy rates also rose. As of 5 p.m. the previous day, the occupancy rate of COVID-19 intensive care unit beds was 14.9%, up 5.4 percentage points from 9.5% a week earlier. When the government declared the start of the resurgence on July 8, the rate was only 7.8%, nearly doubling in just ten days.

The current COVID-19 wave in the country is driven by the BA.5 subvariant of Omicron. In the first week of this month (July 3?9), the detection rate of BA.5 in Korea was 35.0%, making it the most prevalent virus type. Furthermore, the recent confirmation of domestic transmission of another subvariant, BA.2.75 (nicknamed 'Centaurus'), known to spread faster than BA.5, has heightened concerns about the outbreak.

With the 'doubling' phenomenon?where new confirmed cases double week-over-week?continuing as during the early Omicron wave this year, the timing for surpassing 100,000 and 200,000 confirmed cases is expected to be accelerated.

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) initially projected that if the transmission rate increased by 10 percentage points to 41.5%, new confirmed cases would rise to 38,300 by the end of July, 161,000 by the end of August, and peak at 206,600 on September 16. However, the number of confirmed cases has already far exceeded these estimates by mid-July.

Experts also predicted that assuming BA.5 becomes the dominant strain with a detection rate exceeding 50%, the daily maximum number of confirmed cases in early to mid-August would range between 250,000 and 290,000. The National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, which forecasted the highest numbers, estimated on July 13 that if the effective reproduction number increases by 30%, daily confirmed cases would rise to 81,267 by July 27 (two weeks later) and reach a daily peak of 288,546 by August 10 (four weeks later). With confirmed cases surpassing 70,000 on this day, there is a possibility that this prediction will also be brought forward by about a week.

32% of confirmed cases are children and adolescents

The increasing proportion of children and adolescents among new confirmed cases is also noteworthy. As of the previous day, 32% of new confirmed cases were individuals aged 18 or younger. Considering that this age group accounts for about 15% of the total population, this is a significant proportion. The percentage of confirmed cases aged 18 or younger has been steadily rising, exceeding 25% daily since July 15. An analysis of age-specific confirmed case data released by the KDCA shows that the proportion of children and adolescents exceeding 30% is the first occurrence since March 22, when the Omicron wave peaked.

Within age groups, the proportion of confirmed cases among adolescents aged 10?19 was higher than that of children aged 0?9. Among new confirmed cases, 3,427 (13.0%) were aged 0?9, and 5,201 (19.8%) were aged 10?19.

This trend is attributed to increased mobility during summer vacation, low vaccination rates, and the spread of variants with a high risk of reinfection. According to mobile population movement statistics released by Statistics Korea, mobility increased across all age groups in the first week of this month compared to the previous week, with the largest increase of 412,008 among those under 20 years old. This is nearly double the increase seen in the 40s age group (206,648), which had the second-largest rise.

Lower vaccination rates compared to other age groups are also cited as a cause. As of July 14, 73.3% of individuals aged 12?19 had completed two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. For children aged 5?11, the first dose vaccination rate was 1.5%, and the second dose was 1.0%. These rates are low compared to the over 90% two-dose completion rate among all age groups aged 20 and above.

The spread of the BA.5 variant, known for immune evasion, may have increased reinfections. The 0?9 age group already experienced a significant rise in confirmed cases during the Omicron BA.1 wave in February and March, with about one in two children infected, yet cases are rising again. As of July 18, the incidence rate in this age group was 59,426 per 100,000 population.

A KDCA official stated, "Since those aged 18 and under are not actively recommended for vaccination, their vaccination rates are low." He added, "What is notable is that this age group is very active." He further explained, "Although it is not yet certain, this age group was heavily infected during February and March, but this immunity may not be effective against BA.5, so we need to monitor the situation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.