Lee Jae-myung Ultimately Chooses to Run for Party Leader, Future Moves Will Determine His Political Life

Breakthrough or Bulletproof Leader?
Lee Jae-myung's Party Leadership Bid on the 17th
Essentially a Choice That Risks His Political Life
The 'Double-Edged Sword' That Decides His Fate on the Presidential Path

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] Lee Jae-myung, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, will officially announce his candidacy for party leader on the 17th. This comes about four months after his defeat in the March 9 presidential election and roughly a month and a half after entering the National Assembly through the June 1 by-election.

While his election is highly likely if he runs, there are considerable risks associated with a 'Lee Jae-myung party leader' system. He must resolve the sharply intensified internal party conflicts, which have even sparked talks of a party split, and must manage judicial risks while leading the party to victory in the next general election.

It appears that he is staking his political life on the party leader position, which could be a 'double-edged sword' on his path to the next presidential race.

'Retrying the Presidency' Choosing Moon Jae-in's Path

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Nevertheless, Lee seems to have judged that he must seize party leadership now to follow the 'roadmap to the next presidential election.' This can also be interpreted as his intention to follow the path of former President Moon Jae-in, who, after losing the 2012 presidential election, secured party leadership in the 2015 party convention, expanded his influence, and solidified his position as a presidential candidate, ultimately winning the 2017 presidential election.

In fact, Lee has shown a somewhat hesitant stance regarding his bid for party leadership. However, his candidacy has been regarded as a foregone conclusion both inside and outside the party. The road ahead after his bid is not smooth. Former President Moon also mentioned 'three deadly hurdles (winning the party convention, party reform, and winning the general election)' when he ran for party leader in 2015, and Lee faces similarly significant challenges.

Resolving a Divided Party is Key, Judicial Risks Remain a Challenge

[Image source=Yonhap News]

First and foremost, winning this party convention is crucial, but if internal conflicts are not properly resolved, Lee may struggle to establish leadership even after securing party control. How to integrate the hardline voices of pro-Lee Jae-myung faction lawmakers and the core supporters known as 'Gaeddal' into the party, thereby mitigating the backlash of fandom politics and achieving unity, is also a major task.

In particular, if Lee becomes party leader, the key will be whether he can lead the leadership team smoothly without friction with the Supreme Council members. If a significant number of anti-Myung faction lawmakers centered around the pro-Moon group are elected as Supreme Council members, discord could surface across party operations, including the nomination rights for the general election.

How Lee navigates the 'judicial risks' targeting him also remains a challenge. Currently, Lee faces allegations including illegal donations to Seongnam FC, misuse of corporate credit cards, and payment of legal fees by others. A senior Democratic Party lawmaker said, “From the day he announces his candidacy, judicial risks will continuously shake him,” adding, “If the Yoon administration’s failures are not properly highlighted and the party is seen as sacrificing itself for Lee, anti-Lee sentiment will intensify.”

Party Convention Vote Share Crucial for Solidifying Leadership

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, if Lee achieves an overwhelming majority of more than half the votes at the party convention, it could instead become an opportunity to fully control the party. This would mean that both party members and the public have effectively endorsed 'Lee Jae-myung’s leadership,' putting an end to controversies including calls for accountability.

In fact, at the August 29, 2020 party convention, Lee Nak-yeon, who had returned to the Democratic Party and led a landslide victory in the 21st general election, secured 60.77% of the vote, comfortably surpassing Kim Boo-kyum (21.37%) and Park Joo-min (17.85%), confirming his status as the frontrunner and solidifying his leadership.

Even if Lee successfully addresses internal conflicts, judicial risks, and achieves an overwhelming victory, the ultimate turning point will be whether he can lead the party to victory in the general election two years later. If he succeeds in driving a general election win as party leader, his path to the presidency could gain significant momentum. Conversely, if he fails, he will bear the burden of three consecutive nationwide election defeats, potentially signaling a red light for his political career.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.