"Nearly 300,000 Confirmed Cases in Early August"... Is 'Kentauros' Driving the Outbreak?

Incheon 60s BA.2.27 Confirmed... No Additional Cases Yet
Experts Predict Peak of Outbreak Spread Between August 10-17

On the 13th, amid growing concerns over the resurgence of COVID-19, the arrival hall of Terminal 1 at Incheon International Airport is bustling with passengers. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

There is a prediction that if the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic intensifies beyond the current level, the number of new daily confirmed cases could approach 300,000 by early August, four weeks from now. Furthermore, following the BA.5 variant currently driving the outbreak, the BA.2.27 variant (commonly known as 'Kentauros'), which has even higher transmissibility, was confirmed for the first time domestically, raising concerns that the scale of the outbreak could be much larger than expected.

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) on the 15th, a detailed analysis of a specimen from a man in his 60s residing in Incheon who tested positive for COVID-19 on the 11th confirmed the BA.2.27 variant. This is the first case detected in South Korea. The patient is currently undergoing home treatment. Although the infection route has not yet been identified, experts analyze that since the patient has not recently traveled abroad, BA.2.27 may have already spread within the local community. The health authorities are investigating four people, including the patient's cohabitants and contacts, but no additional confirmed cases have been reported yet.

BA.2.27 is known to spread more than three times faster than BA.5, which is currently leading the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea. Overseas researchers suggest that BA.2.27 has more mutations than BA.5, potentially making it more capable of evading vaccine-induced or natural immunity. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also designated BA.2.27 as a 'variant of concern sublineage.'

Domestically, the resurgence of COVID-19 is already accelerating due to the spread of BA.5. As of midnight on the same day, the number of new daily confirmed cases in South Korea was 38,882, doubling compared to a week ago (19,308 on the 8th) and increasing 4.1 times compared to two weeks ago (9,522 on the 1st).

Experts predict that assuming BA.5 becomes the dominant strain with a detection rate exceeding 50%, the maximum daily confirmed cases in mid-August could range from 250,000 to 290,000. The National Institute for Mathematical Sciences forecasts that if the effective reproduction number increases by 30% compared to the 13th, the daily confirmed cases will rise to 81,267 by the 27th (two weeks later) and peak at 288,546 by the 10th of next month (four weeks later). If the reproduction number increases by 10%, daily cases are expected to be 57,940 in two weeks and 151,014 in four weeks. If the reproduction number remains unchanged, daily new cases are projected to be 48,410 and 105,103 respectively.

Professor Jeong Jae-hoon’s team from Gachon University College of Medicine’s Department of Preventive Medicine predicted that the outbreak could peak around the 17th of next month, with daily new confirmed cases exceeding 250,000. They also analyzed that the number of patients in intensive care units during this period could reach 800.

The KDCA projects that if the transmission rate increases by 10 percentage points to 41.5%, the number of new confirmed cases will rise to 38,300 by the end of July, increase to 161,000 by the end of August, and peak at 206,600 on September 16. However, the number of confirmed cases already exceeded 40,000 on the 13th, surpassing government predictions.

If BA.2.27 joins the current situation, the scale of confirmed cases will inevitably be larger than existing forecasts. Professor Eom Jung-sik of Gachon University Gil Medical Center’s Department of Infectious Diseases said, "The fact that the first confirmed BA.2.75 infection in South Korea has no overseas travel history means that this variant has already been introduced domestically," adding, "Whether it is BA.5 or BA.2.75, it is highly likely that a variant with stronger transmissibility will become the dominant strain."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.