"If the Infection Reproduction Number Increases by 30%, Confirmed Cases Will Approach 300,000 in Early August"

Mathematicians Including National Institute for Mathematical Sciences Predict
Government Expects Peak of Up to 200,000 in Mid-September

On the 13th, amid growing concerns over the resurgence of COVID-19, the arrival hall of Terminal 1 at Incheon International Airport is bustling with passengers. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] If the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic intensifies by 30% from the current level in terms of the reproduction number (R), the number of new daily confirmed cases could approach 300,000 by early August, four weeks later.

According to the "COVID-19 Epidemic Forecast Analyzed by Mathematical Modeling" report from the COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling Task Force on the 14th, researcher Choi Seon-hwa of the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences predicted that if the reproduction number increases by 30% from the 13th, the daily confirmed cases will rise to 81,267 by the 27th, two weeks later, and further increase to 288,546 by the 10th of next month, four weeks later.

The reproduction number quantifies how many people one infected person transmits the virus to. A value of 1 or higher indicates the epidemic is spreading, while below 1 means the epidemic is being suppressed.

Researcher Choi predicted that if the reproduction number increases by 10%, daily confirmed cases will rise to 57,940 in two weeks and 151,014 in four weeks. If the reproduction number remains unchanged, daily new confirmed cases are expected to be 48,410 and 105,103 respectively.

Modeling of COVID-19 Domestic Spread by Seonhwa Choi, Researcher at the National Institute of Mathematical Sciences

Professor Shim Eun-ha's research team from Soongsil University’s Department of Mathematics estimated the effective reproduction number (Rt) at 1.50, forecasting new confirmed cases to reach 98,794 by the 20th, one week later, and 179,265 by the 27th, two weeks later.

Professor Jung Eun-ok’s team at Konkuk University, considering the dominance of the BA.5 variant and assuming the transmission rate to be 1.1 times the highest current estimate, predicted daily confirmed cases to be 56,489 in two weeks and 132,509 in four weeks. In this scenario, the number of severe cases per day is expected to increase from 178 to 436, and daily deaths from 28 to 67.

If the transmission rate remains the same as now, daily confirmed cases are predicted to be 84,320 in four weeks, with 300 severe cases and 45 daily deaths.

Research Team Led by Professor Jeong Eun-ok at Konkuk University Modeling the Domestic Spread of COVID-19

The Biological Mathematics Lab (Professor Lee Chang-hyung) at the Department of Mathematical Sciences, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), assumed a reproduction number of 1.7164 over the past two weeks and projected that daily confirmed cases two weeks later would be 50,332 if the reproduction number drops to 1.3, or 106,685 if it rises to 2.1.

The government announced the previous day that the number of new daily confirmed cases could exceed 200,000 during the summer resurgence, estimating the peak period of cases to be between mid-September and mid-October.

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) forecasted that if the transmission rate increases by 10 percentage points to 41.5%, new daily confirmed cases would rise to 38,300 by the end of July, 161,000 by the end of August, and peak at 206,600 on September 16. If the transmission rate remains the same, daily new confirmed cases are expected to be 30,000 at the end of July, 111,800 at the end of August, and peak at 184,700 on September 26.

Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency COVID-19 Spread Forecast

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.