"Japanese Ruling Party Secures Majority in House of Councillors... Constitutional Amendment Forces Maintain Over Two-Thirds" (Summary)

NHK Exit Poll Results Announced
International Attention Rises Following Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Shooting Death

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyun-jung] The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and its coalition partner Komeito are predicted to maintain a majority (125 seats or more) of the total seats in the House of Councillors election held on the 10th. Local media believe that the shooting death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which occurred two days before the election on the 8th, influenced voters' choices.

Local public broadcaster NHK announced the exit poll results immediately after voting ended at 8 p.m. on the same day. This election was to elect half of the 248 total seats in the House of Councillors, 125 seats (including one by-election seat). NHK predicted that the LDP would secure 59 to 69 seats and Komeito 10 to 14 seats out of the 125 seats. The two ruling parties combined were expected to secure 69 to 83 seats.

The term for House of Councillors members is six years, with about half of the members elected every three years. Among the seats not up for election this time, the ruling parties hold 70 seats (LDP 56 seats, Komeito 14 seats). According to NHK's exit poll results, after the election, the ruling parties will hold 139 to 153 seats out of the total 248 seats, maintaining a majority. It is expected that the ruling parties' seat count will likely increase from before the election (139 seats).

Four ruling and opposition parties favorable to constitutional revision?the LDP, Komeito, Nippon Ishin no Kai, and the Democratic Party for the People?are also predicted to maintain more than two-thirds of the total seats in the House of Councillors. NHK stated, "It is certain that the four parties will exceed the 82 seats (newly elected basis) needed to secure two-thirds (166 seats) of the entire House to propose constitutional amendments."

Among the newly elected seats, Nippon Ishin no Kai is expected to secure 10 to 15 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People 2 to 5 seats. These four parties, classified as pro-amendment forces, are predicted to secure 81 to 103 seats in this election, which combined with their existing 84 seats, totals 165 to 187 seats.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

The shooting death of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a street speech on the 8th brought unprecedented international attention to this election. The same was true domestically. The number of early voters nationwide was recorded at 19.61 million, the highest ever. This exceeded the previous record of 17.06 million in the 2019 election, which had one less day of voting, by about 2.55 million. Japan’s early voting system allows people who cannot vote on election day due to work or travel to cast their ballots early; this time, early voting was conducted over 17 days from June 23 to July 9, the day before the election.

The election results appear to have been influenced by sympathy votes for former Prime Minister Abe. Yoichi Masuzoe, an international political scientist who served as Minister of Health, Labour and Welfare in Abe’s first cabinet, told the Tokyo Shimbun earlier, "There is a possibility that sympathy votes will flow to the ruling parties. Even those who held anti-Abe views found it difficult to express such opinions in the current atmosphere." Bloomberg News also noted, "In Japan, where gun violence is rare, this incident is likely to lead to sympathy votes," and added, "Support may go to Prime Minister Kishida, who served as Foreign Minister during Abe’s administration."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.